Winnipeg Jets

What the Quant Says

231 goals, and the top line is doing nearly all of it. Mark Scheifele put up 103 points at 33 on a 20.6 shooting percentage. Kyle Connor scored 39 goals and 92 points on 274 shots. Gabriel Vilardi scored 30, taking 63 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, a median of 15.

Underneath them the club was 27th in even-strength expected goals per 60 at 2.35 and 28th in chance share. Cole Perfetti has 32 points at 24 and has never forced his way higher. Alex Iafallo takes 58 per cent of his shots from inside 20 and scored 13. Adam Lowry, the captain, takes the hardest shifts and scored 5.

The finishing was neutral — 1.6 above expectation, 18th — so the 103 and the 92 sit on top of a process that does not support them. Scheifele's on-ice goals were 33 for and 41 against.

What the Scout Says

A single outstanding line and a supporting group that mostly cannot make its own space. Mark Scheifele's release off the catch from the top of the circle scores goals that look routine because he has already found the space before the puck arrives, and the playmaking is now the larger part of him. Kyle Connor shoots from everywhere, off the rush and off the cycle, and he arrives at the net late rather than beating anyone wide. Both of them avoid the interior and neither wins a puck on a wall — Connor is removed from the puck by anyone who wants to.

Gabriel Vilardi is the one who does that work: excellent hands for 6-3, a heavy release from the slot, and a willingness to win the wall and screen the goaltender without being asked. The skating is the limitation and it is a real one, because he cannot go around anybody. Underneath, Cole Perfetti is a patient passer who is excellent on the half-wall and cannot separate, so everything he does well requires a linemate to make room. Nino Niederreiter tips and finishes rebounds and has slowed. Brad Lambert is the club's most rare tool — fast in every direction, changing pace mid-stride, beating NHL defencemen wide on speed — and is not yet physically ready for the job. Isak Rosen shoots without setting his feet and does nothing away from the rush.

What the Quant Says

19th in even-strength expected goals against, and a settled top 4 whose results were mangled. Josh Morrissey played 24:43 a night across 1,529 5-on-5 minutes and had the goals go 42 for and 74 against — with the expected goals 62.4 to 62.4. That is a shortfall of roughly 18 goals and it is not explained by anything on his page.

Dylan DeMelo took 1,518 minutes at the 53rd percentile and had the goals go 63-62 against. Dylan Samberg is 6-4 and plays 21:49. Neal Pionk takes 22:43 at the 15th percentile and shoots from a median of 59 feet — 91 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40. Mario Ferraro arrives from San Jose. This is a competent group that was outscored by 32 goals more than its chances warranted.

What the Scout Says

One outstanding defenceman, one very good pairing, and an unsettled third. Josh Morrissey is the whole engine: long flat outlets that hit a winger in stride, a genuine ability to walk the offensive line, and a willingness to take chances that occasionally costs a goal, which is the price of a defenceman who creates this much. He is willing in front of his own net without being able to move a heavy centre out of it, and he takes a great deal of punishment for his size at these minutes.

Dylan DeMelo is the reason that works — he retrieves under pressure, turns, and moves the puck before the forecheck arrives, quickly and to the correct man, and does not carry, activate or gamble. It is a specific skill and it is not widely distributed. Dylan Samberg is the club's genuine defensive defenceman: he clears his own crease, wins the wall by simply being larger, and dares an attacker to go outside. Mario Ferraro blocks an enormous number of shots and battles men with 4 inches on him and has done it every night for 7 years. Neal Pionk moves the puck well and holds it a beat too long, which has always been the trade, and cannot win a battle against a power forward at the net front. Elias Salomonsson is the opening: given real minutes at 22 and never hidden.

What the Quant Says

Connor Hellebuyck took 57 games, faced 1,547 shots and stopped .8953, and the club came out 0.1 goals worse than the chances faced — fifteenth, and the closest to exactly neutral of any team in the league.

Stuart Skinner arrives from Edmonton having stopped .8879 across 50 games, which gives Winnipeg a genuine tandem for the first time in years. Eric Comrie has gone to San Jose.

Neutral goaltending is not what this franchise is used to. It is also, on a club that is 27th at creating chances, not the position that needs the attention.

What the Scout Says

The most valuable player on the roster and the most closely watched technique in the league. Connor Hellebuyck plays a quiet, upright, positional game and lets the puck hit him — at his best he looks slow because nothing is urgent. He sets up deeper in his crease than his peers, which buys time on lateral plays and leaves more net on the first shot, and when the push timing is a beat late it is the back-door goal that goes in. He is almost flat emotionally, which is his greatest asset: he does not chase a bad goal with a worse one.

Stuart Skinner is 6-4 and plays big when he is square, technically sound in a straightforward way, and his recurring problem is tracking through traffic — pucks arrive late from the point through a screen, and for a blocking goaltender late means beaten. He was pulled, benched and replaced in playoff series more than once at his last club, and there were stretches where the confidence visibly went. Arriving behind a goaltender who does not need relieving is either a demotion or the most sensible thing that could have happened to him.

What the Quant Says

24th at 6.53 expected goals per 60, on 4:47 a night, 17th. Below-median rate, median opportunity.

Vilardi led it with 13 power-play goals, Scheifele 7, Connor 5. For a unit containing 100-point centre, a 40-goal winger and a defenceman with 55 points, 24th is the clearest underperformance on the roster — and on a club generating this little at 5-on-5, the one that costs most.

What the Scout Says

Well supplied and oddly shaped. Gabriel Vilardi is the most productive man on it and the reason why is simple: he sets up where he cannot be moved and has a quick heavy release from that ice. Mark Scheifele works the seam and Kyle Connor is the finish from the off wing. Cole Perfetti is genuinely excellent on the half-wall, and it is the one place on the sheet where his inability to separate does not matter.

Josh Morrissey runs the point and scores from it at a rate most first-unit defencemen do not manage, without being the club's designated shooter — a rarity worth noting. Neal Pionk has run a power play for stretches of his career and gives the second unit a real distributor. What the group has not got is a second body willing to be cross-checked in the paint alongside Vilardi. Adam Lowry and Morgan Barron are the men on the roster who would do it, and neither has the hands to punish anyone for the privilege.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at 6.92 expected goals against per 60, over 4:43 a game, 23rd. A top-10 kill on a light workload — the best phase of the Winnipeg season.

Lowry and Morgan Barron take the hard shorthanded minutes, and Connor's 2 shorthanded goals and Barron's 2 are the pressure showing. Continuity is 80.5 per cent, tenth, so almost all of this returns: a well-organised, disciplined club that defends properly and cannot generate enough at even strength to make it count.

What the Scout Says

The best-staffed part of this club and the one built entirely from habits. Adam Lowry takes the defensive draws against top lines and does the unrewarded work; Morgan Barron blocks shots and takes the punishment that comes with standing in front of the net a man down; Cole Koepke forechecks hard and kills; Alex Iafallo is always on the right side of the puck and never needs telling twice; Vladislav Namestnikov can take a defensive-zone draw and play either wing. Noah Gregor is genuinely dangerous on a shorthanded rush.

The blue line suits it. Dylan Samberg takes away the middle and clears the front; Mario Ferraro blocks an enormous number of shots and battles above his weight; Dylan DeMelo defends the rush by being early. What the group is short of is a defenceman who removes people from the crease outright rather than contesting it, and neither Morrissey nor Pionk can be asked for that work. The club's discipline is genuinely good — Connor takes 16 penalty minutes in a full season and Iafallo 14 — so the kill is not asked to work often, which is most of why it holds.