Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

81

Kyle Connor

Winnipeg Jets Left Wing

Ninety-seven points, 41 goals on 267 shots, and 25 penalty minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17WPG20235-74001248.312:13
2017-18WPG76312657+81670719216.216:54
2018-19WPG82343266-718111522715.019:15
2019-20WPG71383573+43491723915.921:05
2020-21WPG56262450-412100516615.718:44
2021-22WPG79474693-3483931714.821:47
2022-23WPG82314980-112080827311.420:32
2023-24WPG65342761-66501022115.419:43
2024-25WPG82415697+172592826715.420:24
2025-26 so far
Career613284298582-913967760192614.819:36

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

41 goals and 56 assists in 82 games — 97 points at 20:24 a night, plus-17, with 9 power-play goals, 2 shorthanded goals and 8 game-winners on 267 shots, and 25 penalty minutes.

It is a career high in points. 50.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 56th percentile. His ice went 36-22 against an expectation of 50.35-49.53 — fourteen goals of scoring missing and twenty-eight fewer conceded than the chances predicted, which is the goaltender.

The Finesse Game

267 attempts, the most on the club, at a median of 28 feet with 28 per cent from inside 20 and 14 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 15.4 per cent. The release is among the quickest in the league and he gets it away from the top of the circle before a goaltender has finished setting.

56 assists is the half people forget. He is a genuine distributor from the left side and 582 points in 613 games is a scorer’s record with a playmaker’s ratio inside it.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 183 and he does not play a physical game at all. He does not forecheck with force, he does not win pucks against defencemen, and he is not asked to.

25 penalty minutes in 82 games at twenty minutes a night is a very low rate, and 139 penalty minutes in 613 career games is close to the lowest of any first-line winger in the league.

The Intangibles

Seventeenth overall in 2015 out of Michigan and 613 games and 582 points, all of it in one uniform, with a 47-goal season behind him.

He is 28 and had the best scoring season of his career on the best club he has played for. He is a year from unrestricted free agency and this franchise has never replaced a player of this kind.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,257 minutes

Expected goals
50.4%
57th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.3%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 22 against. Expected: 50.4 and 49.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
88th
Numbers
57th

The report ranks him 31 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1257 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
WPG took 51.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.4% — 1.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,257 minutes at five-on-five — 89th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mark Scheifele51.0%40.9%49.2%
Gabriel Vilardi51.1%47.8%43.2%
Josh Morrissey54.3%46.5%53.5%

51.0% together, 40.9% for him apart and 49.2% for Scheifele apart. He was worse away from Scheifele, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Scheifele did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

360 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 43 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 29% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.