Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

54

Dylan Samberg

Winnipeg Jets Defense

One attempt in a hundred and eight from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22WPG15055+34000140.014:51
2022-23WPG63268+1025000494.114:56
2023-24WPG7811718+1643000771.315:38
2024-25 so far
Career15632831+29720001402.115:17

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

78 games, 1 goal and 17 assists for 18 points, 43 penalty minutes, 15:38 a night and plus-16. He took 52.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,062 minutes, the 70th percentile, and his ice went 36-23 against an expectation of 40.60-36.93.

Five goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and fourteen goals of goaltending above them. Eighteen points is a career high and he played 78 games to get it.

The Finesse Game

108 attempts at a median of 55 feet with 75 per cent of them from beyond forty and 0.9 per cent from inside twenty, 76 of those on goal, converted at 1.3 per cent against a career 2.14 across 140 shots.

Twenty-eight career assists against 3 goals in 156 games. One attempt in a hundred and eight came from inside twenty feet, which is a defenceman who has never once been past the far dot with the puck; the first pass is the whole of the offensive contribution and it is a good one.

The Physical Game

He is 6-4 and 216 and took 43 penalty minutes.

Seventy-two career penalty minutes in 156 games. He is large and defends by taking the man off the puck at the wall and out of the front of the net, and he does it without the reputation or the penalty totals that usually come with it.

The Intangibles

Forty-third overall in 2017 by Winnipeg, three seasons, one organisation, and 31 points in 156 games.

A career plus-29 in 156 games. He is 25, he was a second-round pick by this club, and he has been on the right side of the ledger in all three of his seasons.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,062 minutes

Expected goals
52.4%
71st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.9%
78th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 23 against. Expected: 40.6 and 36.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
71st

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1062 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WPG took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.4% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,062 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nate Schmidt52.9%51.9%55.0%
Nikolaj Ehlers55.0%51.3%56.6%
Vladislav Namestnikov50.6%53.0%54.0%

52.9% together, 51.9% for him apart and 55.0% for Schmidt apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

108 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 51 feet. 1% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.