Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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6

Colin Miller

Winnipeg Jets Defense

Not one attempt from inside twenty feet, in 46 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16BOS4231316039000595.115:48
2016-17BOS616713055100857.115:49
2017-18VGK82103141-4535021775.719:21
2018-19VGK65326290441001312.319:39
2019-20BUF5111011-922001791.317:08
2020-21BUF484812-2027100646.318:00
2021-22BUF3821214-221000484.218:59
2022-23DAL7961521+23371031065.716:46
2023-24NJD/WPG46459+826000695.815:42
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—51239127166-43249068184.817:35

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

46 games, 4 goals and 5 assists for 9 points, 26 penalty minutes, 15:42 a night and plus-8. He took 51.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 660 minutes, the 64th percentile, and his ice went 32-20 against an expectation of 29.82-27.98.

Two goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and eight goals of goaltending above them. Fifty-four point seven per cent of the attempts is the highest share of any defenceman on the club.

The Finesse Game

97 attempts at a median of 56 feet with 88 per cent of them from beyond forty and not one from inside twenty, 68 of those on goal, converted at 5.8 per cent against a career 4.77 across 818 shots.

127 career assists and 39 goals in 512 games. Not one of his 97 attempts came from inside twenty feet and 88 per cent came from beyond forty, which is the second-most perimeter-bound chart on this club; the shot from the point is heavy and it is the only shot he takes.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 200 and took 26 penalty minutes.

324 career penalty minutes in 512 games. He is an ordinary size and defends with an active stick rather than with weight; there is not much crease-clearing in his game and the penalties come from reaching.

The Intangibles

One hundred and fifty-first overall in 2012 by Los Angeles, nine seasons, and Winnipeg is his fifth organisation.

A career minus-4 and 166 points in 512 games. He was a fifth-round pick by a club he never played a game for, had 41 points in Vegas six seasons ago, and has been a third-pairing defenceman ever since.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    87.6% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 99th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    62% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Not one of his 97 attempts came from inside twenty feet and 88 per cent came from beyond forty, which is the second-most perimeter-bound chart on this club; the shot from the point is heavy and it is the only shot he takes.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He is an ordinary size and defends with an active stick rather than with weight; there is not much crease-clearing in his game and the penalties come from reaching.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 660 minutes

Expected goals
51.6%
65th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.7%
88th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 32 for, 20 against. Expected: 29.8 and 28.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
65th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 46 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.57 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.30 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
102.6 mph
100th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with NJD · 598 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WPG took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.6% — 0.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
660 minutes at five-on-five — 29th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Luke Hughes52.9%50.5%51.7%
Tyler Toffoli51.4%51.7%52.8%
Jesper Bratt63.2%46.6%55.3%

52.9% together, 50.5% for him apart and 51.7% for Hughes apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

97 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 60 feet. 0% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 88% from beyond forty.