Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

88

Nate Schmidt

Florida Panthers Defense

Undrafted with 661 games and a career plus-102, arriving at 33 to replace two departed defencemen.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14WSH29246+46000414.918:42
2014-15WSH39134-210000402.513:53
2015-16WSH7221416+1216001802.518:04
2016-17WSH6031417+2216000605.015:29
2017-18VGK7653136+19161011034.922:14
2018-19VGK6192130+2281011128.021:57
2019-20VGK5972431+11121001126.321:41
2020-21VAN5451015-74001766.620:06
2021-22WPG7742832-4101011173.420:13
2022-23WPG7171219+1583001016.918:28
2023-24WPG6321214+1016101752.716:49
2024-25 so far
Career66147173220+1021228069175.119:07

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

63 games in Winnipeg, 2 goals and 12 assists for 14 points, 1 on the power play, 16 penalty minutes, 16:49 a night and plus-10. He took 53.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 915 minutes, the 81st percentile, and his ice went 31-23 against an expectation of 34.98-30.06, all of it with the Jets.

Four goals of scoring that did not arrive and seven fewer conceded than the chances called for, which in Winnipeg means Connor Hellebuyck. He arrives on a cheap contract to take third-pair minutes.

The Finesse Game

75 shots at a median of 52 feet with 75 per cent from beyond 40, converted at 2.7 per cent.

173 career assists in 661 games. He skates the puck out of trouble, which is the reason an undrafted defenceman has 661 games, and the first pass is clean and early. There is very little shot.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 197 and defends positionally rather than physically.

16 penalty minutes in 63 games and 122 in 661 career games is the second-lowest rate of any defenceman with three hundred games in this edition, behind only Jaccob Slavin. He does not punish anybody and he is rarely in a position where he needs to.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of St. Cloud, three years at Minnesota, and 661 games across five organisations. A career plus-102 at 33.

He has been a useful third-pair defenceman for a decade on clubs that were mostly good. Florida is the best of them and the role will be the smallest he has had.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 915 minutes

Expected goals
53.8%
81st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.6%
76th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 23 against. Expected: 35.0 and 30.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
37th
Numbers
81st

The numbers rank him 44 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 379 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with WPG · 915 minutes at five-on-five

  • Dylan Samberg58%
  • Logan Stanley11%
  • Josh Morrissey10%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WPG took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.8% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 915 minutes at five-on-five — 49th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dylan Samberg52.9%55.0%51.9%
Vladislav Namestnikov54.4%53.5%52.5%
Nikolaj Ehlers54.1%53.6%56.7%

52.9% together, 55.0% for him apart and 51.9% for Samberg apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

102 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 43 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.