Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

Josh Morrissey

Winnipeg Jets Defense

Fifty-nine assists and a plus-34, at twenty-four minutes a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16WPG10000000010.015:54
2016-17WPG8261420+638103996.119:29
2017-18WPG8171926+15470001026.920:27
2018-19WPG5962531+914312956.322:24
2019-20WPG6552631+1241001204.222:46
2020-21WPG5641721-1251001163.523:33
2021-22WPG79122537-3666031736.923:40
2022-23WPG78166076+2412061729.324:14
2023-24WPG81105969+34442011965.124:11
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—58266245311+632991611510746.222:31

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 10 goals and 59 assists for 69 points, 2 on the power play, 44 penalty minutes, 24:11 a night and plus-34, with 1 game-winner. He took 54.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,619 minutes, the 84th percentile, and his ice went 82-47 against an expectation of 76.67-64.19.

Five goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and seventeen goals of goaltending above them. Eighty-two goals for in 1,619 minutes is the largest total on this club and the plus-34 is the second-largest.

The Finesse Game

287 attempts at a median of 47 feet with 62 per cent of them from beyond forty and 7 per cent from inside twenty, 191 of those on goal, converted at 5.1 per cent against a career 6.15 across 1,074 shots.

245 career assists against 66 goals in 582 games. He carries the puck out of his own end rather than passing it out and walks the line until a lane appears; 287 attempts is the most of any defenceman on this club and 59 assists is what the volume returns.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 195 and took 44 penalty minutes.

299 career penalty minutes in 582 games. He is an ordinary size for a defenceman playing twenty-four minutes a night and does not defend by contact; the gap is closed with feet and the stick takes the puck rather than the man.

The Intangibles

Thirteenth overall in 2013 by Winnipeg, nine seasons, one organisation, and 311 points in 582 games.

A career plus-63 in 582 games. He is 29, he has had 76 and 69 points in the last two seasons after never passing 37 in the seven before them, and he has played his whole career for this club.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 50.1% for his club in the minutes he sat: +4.3, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:59 a game at five-on-five, 99th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    61% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck out of his own end rather than passing it out and walks the line until a lane appears; 287 attempts is the most of any defenceman on this club and 59 assists is what the volume returns.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He is an ordinary size for a defenceman playing twenty-four minutes a night and does not defend by contact; the gap is closed with feet and the stick takes the puck rather than the man.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “A career plus-63 in 582 games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,619 minutes

Expected goals
54.4%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.8%
77th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 82 for, 47 against. Expected: 76.7 and 64.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
84th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
56th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.58 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.62 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.5 mph
74th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1619 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WPG took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.4% — 2.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,619 minutes at five-on-five — 100th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dylan DeMelo52.6%59.5%54.8%
Mark Scheifele54.6%54.3%43.8%
Kyle Connor51.3%56.0%45.3%

52.6% together, 59.5% for him apart and 54.8% for DeMelo apart. He was better away from DeMelo, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost DeMelo.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

287 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 62% from beyond forty.