Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

Gabriel Vilardi

Winnipeg Jets Center

A 10.6-foot median attempt — the closest chart of anybody in this edition who took a hundred.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20LAK10347041001915.812:51
2020-21LAK54101323-863036515.414:45
2021-22LAK25527-582014112.213:31
2022-23LAK63231841+101850612218.915:36
2023-24WPG47221436+111490511718.817:00
2024-25 so far
Career1996351114+8502001536417.315:18

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

47 games, 22 goals and 14 assists for 36 points, 9 on the power play, 14 penalty minutes, 17:00 a night and plus-11, with 5 game-winners. He took 49.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 630 minutes, the 51st percentile, and his ice went 36-24 against an expectation of 27.61-27.79.

Eight goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and four goals of goaltending above them. Twenty-two goals in 47 games at 18.8 per cent is a rate that will not hold and a location that will.

The Finesse Game

155 attempts at a median of 11 feet with 71 per cent of them from inside twenty and 7 per cent from beyond forty, 115 of those on goal, converted at 18.8 per cent against a career 17.31 across 364 shots.

Sixty-three career goals and 20 power-play goals in 199 games. A ten-and-a-half-foot median attempt with seventy-one per cent of them from inside twenty feet is the closest chart of anybody in this edition who took a hundred attempts; at 6-3 and 216 he stands in the paint and puts back whatever arrives.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 216 and took 14 penalty minutes.

Fifty career penalty minutes in 199 games. He is large and holds his ground in the crease against defencemen who are paid to move him, and he does it without ever retaliating.

The Intangibles

Eleventh overall in 2017 by Los Angeles, five seasons, and Winnipeg is his second organisation.

A career plus-8 and 15 game-winners in 199 games. He is 25, he has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has scored 23 goals in Los Angeles and 22 here in the last two.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 630 minutes

Expected goals
49.8%
51st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.9%
45th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 24 against. Expected: 27.6 and 27.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
51st

The report ranks him 46 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 630 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WPG took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.8% — 2.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
630 minutes at five-on-five — 27th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mark Scheifele50.4%48.2%48.9%
Josh Morrissey55.2%44.0%54.2%
Nikolaj Ehlers59.4%42.6%55.1%

50.4% together, 48.2% for him apart and 48.9% for Scheifele apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

155 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 22 of them goals. His median goal came from 8 feet. 71% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.