Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

36

Morgan Barron

Winnipeg Jets Center

Eleven goals in ten and a half minutes a night, at 6-4.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21NYR5101-12000333.313:41
2021-22NYR/WPG27235-48000336.19:48
2022-23WPG7081321+4310121127.113:15
2023-24WPG8011718+10230039411.710:30
2024-25 so far
Career182222345+9640152429.111:32

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 11 goals and 7 assists for 18 points, 23 penalty minutes, 10:30 a night and plus-10, with 3 game-winners. He took 47.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 724 minutes, the 35th percentile, and his ice went 25-19 against an expectation of 23.21-25.60.

Two goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and seven goals of goaltending above them. Eleven goals is a career high by three and it came in ten and a half minutes a night.

The Finesse Game

118 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 39 per cent of them from inside twenty and 26 per cent from beyond forty, 91 of those on goal, converted at 11.7 per cent against a career 9.09 across 242 shots.

Twenty-two career goals and 23 assists in 182 games. Ninety-one of his 118 attempts reached the goaltender, which is the highest proportion of any forward on the club; he shoots quickly from the middle distance and does not hold the puck long enough to be checked off it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-4 and 220 and took 23 penalty minutes.

Sixty-four career penalty minutes in 182 games. He forechecks with the frame and wins pucks below the goal line by being larger than whoever is there; twenty-three penalty minutes in ten minutes a night is a heavy game played cleanly.

The Intangibles

One hundred and seventy-fourth overall in 2017 by New York, four seasons, and Winnipeg is his second organisation.

A career plus-9 in 182 games. He was a sixth-round pick out of college, has played 150 games here in the last two seasons, and 18 points at ten and a half minutes a night is exactly the fourth line a good club wants.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 724 minutes

Expected goals
47.6%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.5%
59th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 25 for, 19 against. Expected: 23.2 and 25.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
35th

The report ranks him 49 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 724 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WPG took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.6% — 4.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 724 minutes at five-on-five — 33rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brenden Dillon51.3%45.5%49.7%
Dylan DeMelo46.8%48.0%54.1%
Neal Pionk46.3%48.1%49.6%

51.3% together, 45.5% for him apart and 49.7% for Dillon apart. He was worse away from Dillon, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Dillon did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

118 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.