Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →

15

Sam Gagner

Winnipeg Jets Center

The 9th-slowest top speed of 365 forwards and a career minus-133 in 967 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08EDM79133649-21234011359.615:41
2008-09EDM76162541-15160115610.316:46
2009-10EDM68152641-8336011708.816:17
2010-11EDM68152742-173731213810.917:45
2011-12EDM75182947+53660014912.117:11
2012-13EDM48142438-62340111312.419:25
2013-14EDM67102737-29411011437.018:23
2014-15ARI81152641-28286011838.217:15
2015-16PHI538816+425202869.313:52
2016-17CBJ81183250+102280117810.113:43
2017-18VAN74102131-18353021646.115:07
2018-19VAN/EDM326713-614101688.814:36
2019-20EDM/DET426713-1012200797.613:21
2020-21DET427815-415101888.015:26
2021-22DET81131831-4320101329.813:37
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—967184321505-1334275321519829.315:57

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games for Detroit, 13 goals and 18 assists at 13:37 a night, minus-4, thirty-two penalty minutes, 132 shots, one short-handed goal. Sixth overall in 2007 by Edmonton, fifteen seasons, 967 games, 505 points.

The Finesse Game

7.18 shots per 60 is the 48th percentile at 9.8 per cent, from a 25-foot median with forty-seven per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

2.02 even-strength points per 60 is the 65th percentile and three per cent of his points came on the power play — off thirty-nine seconds a night, which for a man with fifty-three career power-play goals is the clearest statement of where he now stands.

0.761 giveaways per 60 is the 20th-fewest of the 393 forwards who played forty games.

43.4 per cent of the expected goals is the 37th-lowest of the same 393 and 46.1 per cent of the attempts the 17th percentile, out of 38.7 per cent offensive-zone time, the 32nd-lowest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, and 42.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 119th-lowest of 652 skaters.

His ice went 33-40 against an expectation of 29.72-38.69 — three ahead in front and a goal and a half more against, which off shares that bad is a considerably better outcome than the model expected.

The Physical Game

2:22 a night short-handed is the 9th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, out of 42.1 per cent offensive-zone starts.

1.14 hits per 60 is the 28th-fewest of the same 393 and 1.36 blocks the 34th percentile, at 5-11 and 200 pounds.

0.38 penalties drawn per 60 is the 9th percentile against 0.87 taken — a net of minus 0.49, the 8th percentile among forwards.

The Intangibles

21.1 mph is the 9th-slowest top speed of the 365 tracked forwards, with 1.69 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 — the 28th-fewest — and 8.86 miles per 60, the 14th-lowest.

All three measurements are in the bottom tenth of the league. There is no reading of that except the obvious one at 33.

He is 33, sixth overall in 2007, with 505 points in 967 games and a career plus-minus of minus-133 accumulated across seven organisations. Thirty-one points and the 9th-largest penalty-killing workload among forwards is honest fourth-line work. The skating says how much longer it can be done, and the answer the chips give is: not much.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:22 a night short-handed is the 9th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, out of 42.1 per cent offensive-zone starts.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 859 minutes

Expected goals
43.4%
12th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.1%
22nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 33 for, 40 against. Expected: 29.7 and 38.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
22nd
Numbers
12th

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
16th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.38 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.01 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.7 mph
80th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with DET · 859 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DET took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.4% — 2.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 859 minutes at five-on-five — 46th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Joe Veleno38.1%46.8%40.3%
Moritz Seider44.5%43.0%45.5%
Filip Hronek38.6%45.7%47.4%

38.1% together, 46.8% for him apart and 40.3% for Veleno apart. He was better away from Veleno, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Veleno.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

149 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.