Adam Lowry

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 13 goals and 8 assists at 15:29 a night, plus-1, fifty-nine penalty minutes, 115 shots, three short-handed goals. Sixty-seventh overall in 2011 by Winnipeg — the third round — eight seasons, 539 games, 168 points.

The Finesse Game

0.867 even-strength points per 60 is the 16th-lowest of the 393 forwards who played forty games — and he scored thirteen goals, which came from the slot and from the penalty kill rather than from the run of play.

Sixty-five per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 17-foot median, the 23rd-shortest of the 393, at 11.3 per cent on 5.64 shots per 60, the 20th percentile.

51.0 per cent of the expected goals is the 60th percentile and 47.9 per cent of the attempts the 31st, out of 40.9 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 101st-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

And then the ledger, which is the largest single number in this chapter. His ice went 19-31 against an expectation of 38.36-36.83. Nineteen goals scored where the model asked for thirty-eight and a half — a shortfall of more than nineteen goals, which is the largest of the 644 skaters in this edition who played four hundred five-on-five minutes. The next-largest is Michael Raffl’s fourteen and a half.

Winnipeg finished 30th in the league in finishing and this is where it lived.

The with-and-without says the rest. With Josh Morrissey he took 62.2 per cent of the attempts and 45.0 without him; with Dylan DeMelo 59.1 and 46.9 without; with Brenden Dillon 41.1 against 55.9 apart, and with Neal Pionk 42.8 against 55.3. Twenty-one points of share between the best pair behind him and the worst.

The Physical Game

11.33 hits per 60 is the 31st-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-5 and 210 pounds.

2:19 a night short-handed is the 12th-most of the same 393, with three short-handed goals, out of 40.9 per cent offensive-zone starts.

1.13 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.74 taken is a net of plus 0.39, the 80th percentile, and fifty-nine penalty minutes came out of seventy-nine games — 287 across 539.

The Intangibles

22.1 mph is the 27th percentile among the 365 tracked forwards and 5.1 bursts per 60 the 49th, against 9.75 miles per 60 at the 59th. His shot is 85.7 mph, the 78th-softest of the 365.

He is 29, a third-round pick of this club, with 168 points in 539 games and a career plus-11. The hits, the kill and the shot chart are a real fourth-line centre and a good one. Nineteen goals against an expectation of thirty-eight and a half is the loudest number in this chapter and it is almost certainly not about him — but a man whose share swings twenty points on which defence pair is behind him is not one a club can plan around either.