Jansen Harkins

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

77 games, 7 goals and 6 assists at 9:29 a night, minus-8, fifteen penalty minutes, 67 shots. Forty-seventh overall in 2015 by Winnipeg — the second round — three seasons, 132 games, 22 points.

The Finesse Game

Nine minutes and twenty-nine seconds a night is the 3rd-smallest workload of the 393 forwards who played forty games. Only his own team-mate Dominic Toninato and one other man in the league played less.

Seven goals from sixty-seven shots is 10.4 per cent, and 5.51 shots per 60 is the 18th percentile from a 30-foot median with thirty-seven per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet, the 8th percentile. A fourth-liner shooting from the outside is an awkward combination.

1.08 even-strength points per 60 is the 42nd-lowest of the 393.

2.14 takeaways per 60 is the 82nd percentile, which is the encouraging figure in the file.

44.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 52nd-lowest of the 393 and 45.4 per cent of the attempts the 13th percentile, out of 45.7 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 197th-lowest of 652 skaters — a hard chair, and shares well below it.

His ice went 17-24 against an expectation of 21.51-26.53 — four and a half short in front and two and a half fewer against.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 197 pounds, and fifteen penalty minutes in seventy-seven games.

4.19 hits per 60 is the 55th percentile and 1.48 blocks the 39th.

0.99 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.49 taken is a net of plus 0.49, the 87th percentile among forwards — the one thing in the file that a fourth line can build on.

The Intangibles

10.355 miles per 60 is the 16th-most of the 365 tracked forwards, off the 3rd-smallest workload in the league.

Read those together: he covers more ground per minute than nearly every forward in hockey, and the club gives him nine and a half minutes to do it in. 22.3 mph is the 42nd percentile and 7.5 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 73rd, so the mileage is not a sprinter’s artefact.

He is 25, a second-round pick of this club, with twenty-two points in 132 games. The work rate is measured and it is real. The chance share, the point rate and the shot chart are all bottom-of-the-league, and 132 games across three seasons at nine and a half minutes is a club telling you what it thinks.