Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

25

Dominic Toninato

Winnipeg Jets Center

The smallest workload of all 393 qualified forwards, at 8:24 a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18COL37022012000250.07:54
2018-19COL2101000001100.06:42
2019-20FLA464711+4370003810.511:09
2020-21WPG20110000020.012:40
2021-22WPG777714+1220114415.98:24
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—164121729+57101111010.99:05

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

77 games, 7 goals and 7 assists at 8:24 a night, plus-1, twenty-two penalty minutes, 44 shots, one short-handed goal and one game-winner. Hundred-and-twenty-sixth overall in 2012 by Toronto — the fifth round — five seasons, 164 games, 29 points.

The Finesse Game

Eight minutes and twenty-four seconds a night is the smallest workload of all 393 forwards who played forty games. Nobody in the league who dressed for a season played less.

4.08 shots per 60 is the 10th-fewest of the same 393, and seven goals from forty-four shots is 15.9 per cent, the 87th percentile — the lowest volume in the league converting well above the median, which across forty-four shots is not a finding.

Sixty-two per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 20-foot median.

1.02 even-strength points per 60 is the 30th-lowest of the 393.

42.7 per cent of the expected goals is the 24th-lowest of the 393 and 42.8 per cent of the attempts the 3rd percentile. Only two qualified forwards in the league took a smaller share of the attempts on their ice.

His ice went 14-17 against an expectation of 14.6-19.61 — level in front and two and a half fewer against, across thirty-one goals, which is not a sample.

The Physical Game

2.97 blocks per 60 is the 92nd percentile among forwards, off an eight-and-a-half-minute shift, with 1:28 a night short-handed.

8.54 hits per 60 is the 84th percentile at 6-2 and 201 pounds, and twenty-two penalty minutes came out of seventy-seven games.

0.46 penalties drawn per 60 against 1.02 taken is a net of minus 0.56, the 5th percentile among forwards — the worst differential of any forward in this chapter.

The Intangibles

His shot is 82.1 mph, the 18th-softest of the 365 tracked forwards.

9.95 miles per 60 is the 77th percentile against a 22.7 mph top speed at the 66th and 5.3 bursts per 60 at the 53rd — he works, at the shortest shift in the league.

He is 28, a fifth-round pick, with twenty-nine points in 164 games. The blocks, the hits and the kill are a thirteenth forward’s virtues and he has all three. The 3rd-lowest attempt share in the league and the softest end of the shot chart are why the shift is eight minutes, and there is nothing in the file to suggest it gets longer.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    37% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 10th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “2.97 blocks per 60 is the 92nd percentile among forwards, off an eight-and-a-half-minute shift, with 1:28 a night short-handed.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 542 minutes

Expected goals
42.7%
9th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
42.8%
6th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 17 against. Expected: 14.6 and 19.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
9th

The report ranks him 39 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 77 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
77th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.74 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
82.1 mph
27th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 542 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WPG took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.7% — 7.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 542 minutes at five-on-five — 22nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jansen Harkins35.7%48.8%49.3%
Kristian Vesalainen42.7%42.7%50.3%
Brenden Dillon38.3%44.9%49.7%

35.7% together, 48.8% for him apart and 49.3% for Harkins apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

60 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.