Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

Josh Morrissey

Winnipeg Jets Defense

The 16th-most miles per 60 of 192 tracked defencemen at 23:40 a night, and eleven goals short of expectation on his ice.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16WPG10000000010.015:54
2016-17WPG8261420+638103996.119:29
2017-18WPG8171926+15470001026.920:27
2018-19WPG5962531+914312956.322:24
2019-20WPG6552631+1241001204.222:46
2020-21WPG5641721-1251001163.523:33
2021-22WPG79122537-3666031736.923:40
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—42340126166+2721412187065.721:53

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 12 goals and 25 assists at 23:40 a night, minus-3, sixty-six penalty minutes, 173 shots, six power-play goals and three game-winners. Thirteenth overall in 2013 by Winnipeg, seven seasons, 423 games, 166 points.

Twelve goals is a career high by five, thirty-seven points a career high by six, and 173 shots a career high by fifty-three.

The Finesse Game

8.869 miles per 60 is the 16th-most of the 192 tracked defencemen, at 23:40 a night and 6-0 and 195 pounds.

Forty-one per cent of his points came on the power play, the 92nd percentile among defencemen, off 2:32 a night with the man advantage.

5.55 shots per 60 is the 76th percentile at 6.9 per cent — the 83rd — from a 47-foot median with twelve per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

0.83 even-strength points per 60 is the 34th percentile, which is the number that argues with everything above it: the production is a power-play production.

54.5 per cent of the expected goals is the 33rd-best of all 202 defencemen and 52.3 per cent of the attempts the 74th percentile, out of 53.5 per cent offensive-zone starts.

And his ice went 59-60 against an expectation of 70.41-58.83. Eleven and a half short in front — the 8th-largest shortfall of the 644 skaters in this edition who played four hundred five-on-five minutes — and a goal and a half more against.

Two Winnipeg men are in the eight largest shortfalls in the league. He is one and Adam Lowry is the other.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 195 pounds, and sixty-six penalty minutes in seventy-nine games — a career high, and 214 across 423 games.

4.82 hits per 60 is the 60th percentile and 3.34 blocks the 22nd, against 0:57 a night short-handed at the 27th. He does not kill, and for a defenceman playing the 89th percentile of minutes that is a real exemption.

0.64 penalties drawn per 60 is the 82nd percentile against 0.90 taken at the 75th.

The Intangibles

21.7 mph is the 37th percentile among the 192 tracked defencemen and 1.5 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 49th. The top end is ordinary and the mileage is not, which is a skating profile the record can describe and cannot explain: he covers more ground than almost anybody at his position without ever being fast.

With Dylan DeMelo he took 56.2 per cent of the attempts across 1,293 — the largest pairing on the club. Morrissey apart from him was 52.9, DeMelo apart from him 50.8. Both men are better together, which is the rarer finding.

He is 27, thirteenth overall in 2013, 6-0 and 195 pounds, with 166 points in 423 games. He plays the minutes, he covers the ground and he takes the power play. The even-strength point rate and the eleven and a half goals are why the season reads worse than the player.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 47.5% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.0, 98th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “8.869 miles per 60 is the 16th-most of the 192 tracked defencemen, at 23:40 a night and 6-0 and 195 pounds.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Forty-one per cent of his points came on the power play, the 92nd percentile among defencemen, off 2:32 a night with the man advantage.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,513 minutes

Expected goals
54.5%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.3%
74th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 60 against. Expected: 70.4 and 58.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
84th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
56th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.58 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.50 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.1 mph
62nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1513 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WPG took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.5% — 4.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,513 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dylan DeMelo56.2%52.9%50.8%
Nate Schmidt51.4%56.4%47.5%
Kyle Connor53.4%55.1%47.4%

56.2% together, 52.9% for him apart and 50.8% for DeMelo apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

249 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 73% from beyond forty.