Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

80

Pierre-Luc Dubois

Winnipeg Jets Center

The 7th-most penalties drawn per 60 of 393 forwards and the 18th-fewest takeaways.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CBJ82202848+84960416512.116:38
2018-19CBJ82273461+166420517415.517:43
2019-20CBJ70183149-24910415811.417:56
2020-21CBJ/WPG4691221-8381037611.815:02
2021-22WPG81283260-6106150623312.018:55
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—361102137239+83062502280612.717:26

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 28 goals and 32 assists at 18:55 a night, minus-6, 106 penalty minutes, 233 shots, fifteen power-play goals and six game-winners. Third overall in 2016 by Columbus, five seasons, 361 games, 239 points.

The Finesse Game

Sixty-five per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at an 18-foot median, the 26th-shortest of 393 forwards, at 6-4 and 220 pounds.

Fifteen power-play goals is more than half his total and the most on the club by seven, off 3:07 a night with the man advantage at the 88th percentile.

9.12 shots per 60 is the 79th percentile at 12.0 per cent, and 1.92 even-strength points per 60 is the 59th — which is the file’s central problem. Twenty-eight goals from a chair that started 57.6 per cent in the attacking end, and a five-on-five rate that is merely ordinary.

0.861 takeaways per 60 is the 18th-fewest of the 393.

52.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 72nd percentile and 50.8 per cent of the attempts the 59th.

His ice went 52-49 against an expectation of 58.36-52.07 — six short in front and three fewer against.

The Physical Game

1.958 penalties drawn per 60 is the 7th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, against 1.76 taken at the 95th percentile, and 106 penalty minutes.

Drawing that many calls is a genuine skill and giving nearly all of them back is the reason the net is only plus 0.20.

4.38 hits per 60 is the 56th percentile at 6-4 and 220 pounds, which for that frame is low, and 306 penalty minutes across 361 career games.

The Intangibles

22.9 mph is the 78th percentile among the 365 tracked forwards and 7.6 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 73rd, against 9.26 miles per 60 at the 19th — quick in bursts, and among the least ground covered per minute in the league.

He is 24, third overall in 2016, with 102 goals in 361 games. Twenty-eight goals and sixty points at 24 out of a soft chair is a good season and not a first-line one. The power-play dependence, the takeaway rate and the mileage all say the same thing: this is a heavy man who scores from the paint and does not drive a shift. The 106 penalty minutes cut both ways and the record cannot say which way harder.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    65.1% of his attempts in the slot, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:55 a game at five-on-five, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Sixty-five per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at an 18-foot median, the 26th-shortest of 393 forwards, at 6-4 and 220 pounds.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.958 penalties drawn per 60 is the 7th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, against 1.76 taken at the 95th percentile, and 106 penalty minutes.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,208 minutes

Expected goals
52.8%
75th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.8%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 49 against. Expected: 58.4 and 52.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
96th
Numbers
75th

The report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
85th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.38 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.92 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.3 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1208 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WPG took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.8% — 2.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,208 minutes at five-on-five — 86th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Kyle Connor53.6%51.0%42.0%
Josh Morrissey57.7%49.8%52.9%
Nate Schmidt53.5%52.5%46.9%

53.6% together, 51.0% for him apart and 42.0% for Connor apart. Connor was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Connor than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

332 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 29 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 55% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.