Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

10

Evgeny Svechnikov

San Jose Sharks Left Wing

The 6th-percentile penalty differential and the 81st-percentile hit rate, on the 5th-percentile workload.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17DET20000000040.013:09
2017-18DET14224-280001513.38:49
2019-20DET4000-1200070.08:20
2020-21DET21358-3101012114.311:49
2021-22WPG7271219-438001789.010:45
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—113121931-10581021259.610:40

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

72 games for Winnipeg, 7 goals and 12 assists at 10:45 a night, minus-4, thirty-eight penalty minutes, 78 shots. Nineteenth overall in 2015 by Detroit, five seasons, 113 games, 31 points.

The Finesse Game

Ten minutes and forty-five seconds a night is the 5th percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games — one of the twenty smallest regular shifts in the league.

1.48 even-strength points per 60 is the 31st percentile, which off that workload is not a bad rate, and none of his points came on the power play: one second a night, the 1st percentile.

6.04 shots per 60 is the 28th percentile at 9.0 per cent, from a 22-foot median with fifty-seven per cent from the slot at the 70th percentile. He goes to the net and his shot is 84.8 mph, the 15th percentile — a first-round pick who arrives in the right place without the tool to finish there.

2.17 giveaways per 60 is the 83rd percentile against 1.86 takeaways at the 66th.

50.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 55th percentile and 48.4 per cent of the attempts the 33rd, out of 48.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 274th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

A chance share above fifty on a fourth line is the best number in the file, and his ice went 26-31 against an expectation of 30.39-30.11.

The Physical Game

8.06 hits per 60 is the 81st percentile at 6-3 and 208 pounds.

1.16 penalties taken per 60 is the 84th percentile among forwards against 0.62 drawn, and the net of minus-0.54 is the 6th percentile.

Thirty-eight penalty minutes in seventy-two games at ten minutes a night is a great deal of time in the box for the ice he was given.

The Intangibles

22.7 mph is the 65th percentile and 9.78 miles per 60 the 61st, against 2.0 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 10th.

He almost never gets to full speed and covers an ordinary amount of ground when he is out there.

He is 25, a nineteenth-overall pick, and has 113 NHL games across five calendar years and three organisations. The slot share, the hitting and a chance share above fifty are three real things. The shot speed, the sprint count, the penalty ledger and 113 games in seven years since the draft are the reasons a first-round pick is a fourth-line winger at 25.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.16 penalties taken per 60 is the 84th percentile among forwards against 0.62 drawn, and the net of minus-0.54 is the 6th percentile.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 767 minutes

Expected goals
50.2%
58th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.4%
39th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 31 against. Expected: 30.4 and 30.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
58th

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 72 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
76th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.36 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.75 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.8 mph
37th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with WPG · 767 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WPG took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.2% — 0.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 767 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Pierre-Luc Dubois52.7%46.9%52.9%
Kyle Connor51.5%48.4%48.9%
Brenden Dillon49.6%50.6%48.3%

52.7% together, 46.9% for him apart and 52.9% for Dubois apart. He was worse away from Dubois, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Dubois did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

97 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.