Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

55

Mark Scheifele

Winnipeg Jets Center

Seventy points in sixty-seven games at the 5th-largest workload of 393 forwards, and a minus-17.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12WPG710100100520.010:57
2012-13WPG40000000060.011:32
2013-14WPG63132134+91410210013.016:21
2014-15WPG82153449+11243021708.818:35
2015-16WPG71293261+164870319414.918:33
2016-17WPG79325082+183870516020.020:34
2017-18WPG60233760+191882312518.420:41
2018-19WPG82384684+838120619919.121:52
2019-20WPG71294473+245100617017.121:48
2020-21WPG56214263-41240412616.720:58
2021-22WPG67294170-172370315918.221:08
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—642230347577+6226060234141416.319:55

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

67 games, 29 goals and 41 assists at 21:08 a night, minus-17, twenty-three penalty minutes, 159 shots, seven power-play goals and three game-winners. Seventh overall in 2011 by Winnipeg, eleven seasons, 642 games, 577 points.

The Finesse Game

Forty-one assists in sixty-seven games and 2.60 even-strength points per 60, the 84th percentile, off the 39th-percentile shot rate.

Twenty-nine goals from 159 shots is 18.2 per cent, the 24th-highest conversion of the 393 forwards who played forty games — and 6.74 shots per 60 is the 39th percentile. He is the highest-scoring low-volume shooter in this chapter and one of the highest in the league.

Fifty-five per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 23-foot median.

21:08 a night is the 5th-largest workload of the 393, off 3:28 on the power play at the 95th percentile, and twenty-seven per cent of his points came there.

48.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 39th percentile and 50.0 per cent of the attempts the 52nd, out of 59.0 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 72nd-highest of 652 skaters — a genuinely soft chair, and shares that come out just underneath it.

And the minus-17 wants care. His five-on-five ice went 56-58 against an expectation of 50.37-53.23 — five and a half better than the model in front and five worse behind it. A minus-17 does not come out of that ledger; it comes out of special teams and empty nets, and the five-on-five record is very nearly even.

2.54 giveaways per 60 is the 93rd percentile.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 207 pounds, and twenty-three penalty minutes in sixty-seven games.

1.53 hits per 60 is the 11th percentile and 1.99 blocks the 65th, against four seconds a night short-handed.

0.89 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.42 taken is a net of plus 0.47, the 84th percentile.

The Intangibles

22.6 mph is the 59th percentile among the 365 tracked forwards, 3.6 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 27th and 9.80 miles per 60 the 62nd. His shot is 94.5 mph, the 81st percentile.

Slow to sprint and ordinary everywhere else, at twenty-one minutes a night, which is the shape of a centre who wins with position rather than pace.

He is 29, seventh overall in 2011, with 577 points in 642 games and a career plus-62. Seventy points in sixty-seven games is a point a game and the sixth time he has scored at that rate. Fifteen games lost and an 18.2 per cent conversion are the two numbers that will not repeat together.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    16:27 a game at five-on-five, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Forty-one assists in sixty-seven games and 2.60 even-strength points per 60, the 84th percentile, off the 39th-percentile shot rate.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,102 minutes

Expected goals
48.6%
44th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50%
56th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 58 against. Expected: 50.4 and 53.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
44th

The report ranks him 40 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 67 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
72nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.25 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.45 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.5 mph
88th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1102 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WPG took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.6% — 1.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,102 minutes at five-on-five — 77th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Blake Wheeler47.1%50.4%55.0%
Josh Morrissey49.4%48.1%57.0%
Paul Stastny53.4%45.5%52.3%

47.1% together, 50.4% for him apart and 55.0% for Wheeler apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

219 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 31 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.