Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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86

Jack Hughes

New Jersey Devils Center

The only skater in the league who played forty games and took no penalty minutes at all — and the 2nd-most ground covered of 365 forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20NJD6171421-26104021235.715:52
2020-21NJD56112031-3161011427.819:04
2021-22NJD49263056-16060216515.819:34
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1664464108-4526110543010.218:02

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

26 goals and 30 assists in forty-nine games at 19:34 a night — 56 points, a 94-point pace — at 21, minus-16. First overall in 2019, three seasons, 166 games, 108 points.

He took no penalty minutes at all. Not one, in forty-nine games — the only skater in the entire league who played forty games and finished with a zero in that column.

The Finesse Game

3.10 even-strength points per 60 is the 20th-best of the 393 qualified forwards and 10.33 shots per 60 is the 91st percentile at 15.8 per cent. Fifty-one per cent from the slot at a 25-foot median: volume, conversion and location all at once.

3.07 takeaways per 60 is the 5th-most of 393 forwards and 3.75 giveaways is the 3rd-most — the puck is on his stick more than almost anybody’s and both columns say so.

52.4 per cent of the expected goals is the 69th percentile, which is the disappointing part and reads better in the pair file: beside Jesper Bratt across 566 attempts he took 59.4 per cent; away from Bratt, 47.8.

His ice went 43-52 against an expectation of 36.69-33.30 — nineteen goals against more than the chances warranted, which is the goaltending and not him.

The Physical Game

0.38 hits per 60 is the 1st percentile of forwards and 0.94 blocks the 14th. At 5-11 and 175 he does not go near it.

Zero penalties taken, 1.00 drawn per 60, and a net at the 99th percentile. A player who gives his club a power play every hour and never costs it one is worth naming plainly, and it is not a thing that shows up in any scoring column.

The Intangibles

10.90 miles per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, behind only Ryan McLeod. 22.6 mph is only the 56th percentile — this is not speed, it is a small centre who does not stop.

He is 21 with 108 points in 166 games and a 94-point pace behind him. The one thing standing between that pace and a season is availability — 61, 56 and 49 games in three years — and nothing in this record forecasts it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.00 penalty minutes a game over 49, 0th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:47 a game at five-on-five, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    62% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “10.90 miles per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, behind only Ryan McLeod.”

  • defensively-responsiblepresent and ordinary· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “3.07 takeaways per 60 is the 5th-most of 393 forwards and 3.75 giveaways is the 3rd-most — the puck is on his stick more than almost anybody's and both columns say so.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 773 minutes

Expected goals
52.4%
73rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.8%
77th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 43 for, 52 against. Expected: 36.7 and 33.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
81st
Numbers
73rd

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 49 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
70th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.35 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.56 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.2 mph
50th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 773 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NJD took 51.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.4% — 1.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 773 minutes at five-on-five — 39th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Yegor Sharangovich52.4%52.5%51.0%
Jesper Bratt59.4%47.8%55.7%
Jonas Siegenthaler55.8%50.7%52.4%

52.4% together, 52.5% for him apart and 51.0% for Sharangovich apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

222 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 27 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.