Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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88

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning Goaltender

Eight seasons and 11,039 shots at .9192, with every single year between .9102 and .9253.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2014-15TBL16751342.361415.918
2015-16TBL2411100582.761646.910
2016-17TBL50231771232.6121480.917
2017-18TBL65441731672.6282075.919
2018-19TBL53391041282.4061713.925
2019-20TBL52351431332.5631605.917
2020-21TBL4231101932.2151237.925
2021-22TBL63391851562.4921868.916
2022-23 so far——————————
Career—365229101248922.502811039.919

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

63 games, 39-18-5, a .9165 save percentage and a 2.49 goals-against, two shutouts on 1,868 shots — the 5th-most faced by any of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games. That .9165 is 12th of the same 53. Nineteenth overall in 2012 by Tampa Bay, eight seasons, 365 games.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 223 pounds, and 28 years old.

Eight seasons and 11,039 career shots at .9192. Every one of those eight years falls between .9102 and .9253.

That is a hundred and fifty-one points of total spread across eight seasons and eleven thousand shots, and it is the most stable record of any goaltender in this batch of four clubs. The worst year of his career is a .9102 across 646 shots as a 21-year-old; every season since has been .9165 or better.

Thirty-nine wins came out of sixty-three starts.

The Mental Game

Tampa Bay rated 6th in the league in goaltending at plus-11.7 goals saved above expectation, and Brian Elliott took the other nineteen games at .9121.

The skaters in front finished 12th in attempt share at 50.9 per cent and 10th in chances at 52.5, and 12th in expected goals against per 60 at even strength.

That is a good structure and not an extraordinary one, and the club still allowed 233 goals — 6th-fewest in the league. The five-on-five ledger was 149 against an expectation of 160.7, so the crease came in twelve goals better than the model asked across the season.

The Intangibles

Nothing here measures rebound control, how he tracks a puck through traffic, or what he does on the second and third chance.

What it measures is eleven thousand shots at .9192 with no bad year in it. The absence of variance is the finding — the record contains no season this book could point to and call an outlier in either direction.

He is 28 and has faced more than 1,600 shots in four of his last five seasons. A goaltender who has never been below .9102 and has been above .9165 for seven straight years is the single most reliable asset in this chapter, and the only question the numbers raise is the workload.