Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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91

Steven Stamkos

Tampa Bay Lightning Center

A hundred and six points and the 9th-least ground covered of 365 tracked forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09TBL79232346-133990118112.714:56
2009-10TBL82514495-238241529717.220:33
2010-11TBL82454691+374170827216.520:12
2011-12TBL82603797+7661201230319.822:01
2012-13TBL48292857-432100215718.522:01
2013-14TBL37251540+91891512420.220:15
2014-15TBL82432972+249130626816.019:22
2015-16TBL77362864+338141821616.719:45
2016-17TBL1791120+3143015815.517:53
2017-18TBL78275986+1872150121212.718:46
2018-19TBL82455398+437192623419.218:18
2019-20TBL57293766+1422100617616.518:25
2020-21TBL38171734+41610019118.718:16
2021-22TBL814264106+24361601124117.418:29
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—922481491972+72551181573283017.019:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 42 goals and 64 assists at 18:29 a night, plus-24, thirty-six penalty minutes, 241 shots and eleven game-winners. Sixteen of the forty-two came on the power play. First overall in 2008 by Tampa Bay, fourteen seasons, 922 games, 972 points.

The Finesse Game

3.60 even-strength points per 60 is the 98th percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games, and it is not the power play carrying him: thirty-four per cent of his points came there, which is high but not extreme.

9.66 shots per 60 is the 85th percentile at 17.4 per cent, the 92nd.

And the shot chart is the surprise. Thirty-six per cent of his attempts came from the slot — the 6th percentile — off a 29-foot median at the 83rd. Forty-two goals scored from further out than almost anyone who scores forty, and the 96.6 mph shot at the 92nd percentile is why it works.

52.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 71st percentile and 51.0 per cent of the attempts the 61st, out of 53.5 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 218th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — a mildly soft chair.

1.20 takeaways per 60 is the 20th percentile against 0.96 giveaways at the 14th. Very little happens on his stick in either direction; he is waiting for it.

The Physical Game

0.40 penalties drawn per 60 is the 11th percentile against 0.72 taken, and the net of minus-0.32 is the 14th. He does not draw calls.

3.73 hits per 60 is the 47th percentile at 6-1 and 193 pounds.

The Intangibles

8.79 miles per 60 is the 9th-least of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, against a 21.8 mph top speed at the 16th percentile and 3.2 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 22nd.

All three skating measurements are in the bottom quarter of the league and one of them is in the bottom ten. A hundred and six points from a man who covers less ground per minute than 356 other forwards is the most striking line in this chapter, and the record cannot say whether that is economy or decline.

He is 32, with 972 points in 922 games, and the 106 is the highest total of his career. The shot, the release and fourteen seasons of it are the case. Nothing about the skating supports another five years of it, and the tracking has only existed for three.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    8 of his 42 goals late or in overtime, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,098 minutes

Expected goals
52.6%
74th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51%
65th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 43 against. Expected: 52.2 and 47.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
74th

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
34th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.98 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.71 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.6 mph
95th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1098 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TBL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.6% — 0.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,098 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Killorn50.2%54.5%48.2%
Victor Hedman54.0%51.7%56.1%
Ondrej Palat52.8%52.5%55.5%

50.2% together, 54.5% for him apart and 48.2% for Killorn apart. He was better away from Killorn, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Killorn.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

328 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 45 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 23% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.