Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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24

Haydn Fleury

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense

A seventh-overall pick with thirty-one points in 215 games across five seasons.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CAR67088-214000860.016:48
2018-19CAR20011+42000170.012:32
2019-20CAR4541014-28000656.213:40
2020-21CAR/ANA47314-128000624.815:24
2021-22SEA36224013001523.916:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—21592231-12450012823.215:21

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

36 games for Seattle, 2 goals and 2 assists at 16:17 a night, even, thirteen penalty minutes, 52 shots. Seventh overall in 2014 by Carolina, five seasons, 215 games, 31 points.

Five hundred and forty-one minutes of five-on-five ice clears the five hundred this book requires, and thirty-six games does not clear the forty, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

Four points in thirty-six games, off fifty-two shots from a 56-foot median with eighty-one per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet and eight per cent from inside twenty.

That is the longest median shot of any defenceman in this chapter and it produced two goals.

49.5 per cent of the expected goals across 541 five-on-five minutes, out of 45.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 195th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

Seattle finished 3rd in the league in expected goals against per 60 at even strength and 30th in the standings, so a level chance share there says less than it would elsewhere. His ice went 18-19 against an expectation of 18.08-18.47, which is as close to the model as a third of a season gets.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 207 pounds, and thirteen penalty minutes in thirty-six games. Forty-five across a 215-game career — he does not take penalties and he does not draw them.

The Intangibles

23.2 mph top speed and 0.9 bursts a game, both drawn from thirty-six games. The top speed would be the 93rd percentile of the 568 skaters the tracking covers if he had played the games to qualify, and a maximum scales with the number of shifts a man takes, so it is quoted as a description rather than a rank.

2.37 miles a game and a 93.0 mph shot.

He is 26, seventh overall in 2014, with thirty-one points in 215 games across five seasons and three organisations. The size, the speed and the reach are the case, and they have been the case for eight years. Thirty-one points, no season above sixty-seven games, and a shot chart that never gets inside forty feet are why a top-ten pick is a seventh defenceman on his fourth club.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 541 minutes

Expected goals
49.5%
53rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.1%
30th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 18 for, 19 against. Expected: 18.1 and 18.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
53rd

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 36 games

Top speed
23.2 mph
98th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.92 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.37 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.0 mph
55th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with SEA · 541 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SEA took 49.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.5% — 0.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 541 minutes at five-on-five — 22nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Morgan Geekie50.2%49.3%49.1%
Ryan Donato47.6%50.0%48.8%
Alex Wennberg46.4%50.6%49.2%

50.2% together, 49.3% for him apart and 49.1% for Geekie apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

73 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 58 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 81% from beyond forty.