Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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86

Nikita Kucherov

Tampa Bay Lightning Right Wing

Sixty-nine points in forty-seven games, and 616 points in 562 across eight seasons.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14TBL529918+3143031028.813:07
2014-15TBL82293665+383720219115.214:57
2015-16TBL77303666+93090420914.318:13
2016-17TBL74404585+1338170724616.319:26
2017-18TBL803961100+154280727914.019:49
2018-19TBL824187128+2462150824616.719:58
2019-20TBL68335285+263840621015.718:52
2021-22TBL47254469+12290115616.019:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—562246370616+12928367038163915.018:08

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

47 games, 25 goals and 44 assists at 19:59 a night, plus-1, twenty-two penalty minutes, 156 shots. Nine of the twenty-five came on the power play. Fifty-eighth overall in 2011 by Tampa Bay — the second round — eight seasons, 562 games, 616 points.

The Finesse Game

Forty-four of his sixty-nine points are assists, and he has made 370 across eight seasons while shooting from further out than all but fourteen forwards in the league.

Sixty-nine points in forty-seven games is 1.47 a game. His career rate is 1.10 and he has now been at or above 1.25 in four separate seasons.

3.10 even-strength points per 60 is the 95th percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games, and 3:53 on the power play is the 99th — the largest power-play workload of any forward on the club. Forty-three per cent of his points came there, the 97th percentile.

9.97 shots per 60 is the 88th percentile at 16.0 per cent, from a 30-foot median at the 90th percentile with thirty-four per cent of his attempts from the slot — the 15th-lowest share of all 393 forwards.

He shoots often and rarely from the paint, and converts at sixteen per cent anyway.

51.5 per cent of the expected goals is the 63rd percentile, out of 59.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 70th-highest of 652 skaters — the softest chair on the club.

2.36 giveaways per 60 is the 90th percentile, against 1.53 takeaways at the 43rd.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 173 pounds, and twenty-two penalty minutes in forty-seven games.

2.04 hits per 60 is the 21st percentile and 0.45 blocks per 60 is the 1st — the fewest of any forward on this roster. There is next to nothing physical in the record.

The Intangibles

23.1 mph is the 85th percentile among forwards and 9.33 miles per 60 the 24th, against 1.9 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 8th percentile — one of the lowest sprint counts in the league.

Fast when he opens up and he almost never does. That pattern — a high top speed and a low sprint count — belongs to a player who controls the pace rather than beating it, and the record can describe it without explaining it.

He is 29, with 616 points in 562 games. Forty-seven games is the concern, and it is the fewest he has played in a full season since his first. The production, when he plays, is elite at both strengths and the record says so without qualification — 1.47 points a game, a 95th-percentile even-strength rate and the biggest power-play role on a club that finished 3rd in the league on it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:09 a game at five-on-five, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Forty-four of his sixty-nine points are assists, and he has made 370 across eight seasons while shooting from further out than all but fourteen forwards in the league.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 712 minutes

Expected goals
51.5%
66th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.3%
67th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 40 against. Expected: 37.3 and 35.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
66th

The report ranks him 31 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 47 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
90th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.64 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.11 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.7 mph
89th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 712 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TBL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.5% — 1.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 712 minutes at five-on-five — 33rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brayden Point52.3%49.7%50.9%
Ondrej Palat53.5%49.9%54.9%
Victor Hedman52.2%51.0%56.6%

52.3% together, 49.7% for him apart and 50.9% for Point apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

212 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 25% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.