Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

17

Alex Killorn

Tampa Bay Lightning Left Wing

The 2nd-least ground covered of 365 tracked forwards, and twenty-five goals from a 19-foot median.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13TBL3871219-614102828.516:49
2013-14TBL82172441+8633021739.816:47
2014-15TBL71152338+83611513011.516:56
2015-16TBL81142640+14443031549.116:48
2016-17TBL81191736-96641417610.818:00
2017-18TBL82153247+22452011569.616:30
2018-19TBL82182240+224521215311.814:52
2019-20TBL68262349+192080713020.017:56
2020-21TBL56151833-13750112112.417:54
2021-22TBL82253459+16660216415.218:42
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—723171231402+7843635329143911.917:06

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games, 25 goals and 34 assists at 18:42 a night, plus-1, sixty-six penalty minutes, 164 shots. Six of the twenty-five came on the power play. Seventy-seventh overall in 2007 by Tampa Bay — the third round — ten seasons, 723 games, 402 points.

The Finesse Game

Sixty-nine per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 19-foot median, the 97th percentile among forwards.

6.42 shots per 60 is the 33rd percentile at 15.2 per cent, the 83rd — twenty-five goals from 164 attempts, almost all of them from inside the dots.

2.40 even-strength points per 60 is the 80th percentile and 3:13 on the power play is the 90th.

49.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 46th percentile and 50.9 per cent of the attempts the 60th, out of 46.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 212th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

A slightly hard chair and shares that come out level. On a club that took 52.5 per cent of the chances league-wide, a first-line winger sitting at 49.2 is the one soft spot in the top six.

The Physical Game

1.29 penalties taken per 60 is the 87th percentile against 0.90 drawn, and the net of minus-0.39 is the 11th percentile — sixty-six penalty minutes in eighty-two games.

3.44 hits per 60 is the 43rd percentile and 1.02 blocks the 17th at 6-1 and 205 pounds.

The Intangibles

8.60 miles per 60 is the 2nd-least of the 365 forwards the tracking covers. Only Mikael Granlund covered less ground per minute in the entire league.

21.9 mph is the 18th percentile and 2.5 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 13th. Slow, almost never at speed, and covering less ice than 363 other forwards — three measurements pointing the same way, at 32, on a first line.

His shot is 89.3 mph, the 45th percentile.

He is 32, with 402 points in 723 games across ten seasons, and the fifty-nine is a career high by ten. The slot share, the durability — eighty-two games — and a decade of twenty-goal seasons are the case. The skating file is the shortest sentence in this chapter and the loudest, and it is what a club decides about when the contract comes up.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    69.2% of his attempts in the slot, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Sixty-nine per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 19-foot median, the 97th percentile among forwards.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,077 minutes

Expected goals
49.2%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.9%
64th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 41 against. Expected: 45.4 and 47.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
67th
Numbers
50th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
37th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.78 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.68 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.3 mph
62nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1077 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TBL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.2% — 3.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,077 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Anthony Cirelli53.4%44.6%55.9%
Steven Stamkos50.2%48.2%54.5%
Victor Hedman52.4%46.7%56.9%

53.4% together, 44.6% for him apart and 55.9% for Cirelli apart. He was worse away from Cirelli, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Cirelli did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

224 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.