Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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CP

Corey Perry

Tampa Bay Lightning Right Wing

The 3rd-shortest median shot and the 5th-highest slot share of all 393 forwards, at 37.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2005-06ANA56131225+1504029813.311:34
2006-07ANA82172744+12554031948.812:28
2007-08ANA70292554+12108110420014.517:57
2008-09ANA78324072+10109100828311.318:36
2009-10ANA82274976011161227010.021:04
2010-11ANA82504898+91041441129017.222:19
2011-12ANA80372360-7127141627713.421:23
2012-13ANA44152136+107250512811.719:04
2013-14ANA81433982+326580928015.419:29
2014-15ANA67332255+136740319317.118:06
2015-16ANA82342862+268120621515.817:42
2016-17ANA82193453+2765032158.817:43
2017-18ANA71173249-47140116810.117:47
2018-19ANA316410-16272015910.214:49
2019-20DAL5751621-270100776.513:43
2020-21MTL4991221-4391016214.513:44
2021-22TBL82192140+96660415312.413:31
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1176405453858+791285111669316212.817:24

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games, 19 goals and 21 assists at 13:31 a night, plus-9, sixty-six penalty minutes, 153 shots. Six of the nineteen came on the power play. Twenty-eighth overall in 2003 by Anaheim, seventeen seasons, 1,176 games, 858 points.

The Finesse Game

Seventy-three per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 14.3-foot median — the 5th-highest share and the 3rd-shortest distance of all 393 forwards.

Only Julien Gauthier and Paul Stastny shot from closer in the entire league, and neither scored nineteen goals.

8.28 shots per 60 is the 66th percentile at 12.4 per cent, off a 13:31 shift at the 29th percentile. Nineteen goals from a fourth-line workload, all of them from the paint.

55.9 per cent of the expected goals is the 86th percentile, out of 44.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 162nd-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — a hard chair, and the best chance share of any Tampa forward.

His ice went 37-25 against an expectation of 42.76-33.73 — nearly six short in front and nine fewer against.

The Physical Game

1.68 penalties drawn per 60 is the 95th percentile among forwards against 1.41 taken at the 89th, and sixty-six penalty minutes came out of a 13:31 shift.

That is the file in one line. He is among the twenty most-fouled forwards in the league and among the forty who foul most, and the net is still plus-0.27.

6-3 and 210 pounds, and 3.95 hits per 60 at the 51st percentile.

The Intangibles

22.0 mph is the 24th percentile, 2.2 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 11th, and 9.13 miles per 60 the 13th.

All three in the bottom quarter of the league at 37, and he played all eighty-two games.

His shot is 95.8 mph, the 88th percentile — the velocity has not gone anywhere and the legs have.

He is 37, in a seventeenth season, and this is his third club in three years. The net front, the calls he draws and eighty-two games at 37 are the case, and it is a better one than the point total. What the file cannot tell you is how much longer a man who gets his goals from fourteen feet can keep standing there.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    72.8% of his attempts in the slot, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    5 of his 19 goals late or in overtime, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Seventy-three per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 14.3-foot median — the 5th-highest share and the 3rd-shortest distance of all 393 forwards.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.68 penalties drawn per 60 is the 95th percentile among forwards against 1.41 taken at the 89th, and sixty-six penalty minutes came out of a 13:31 shift.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 964 minutes

Expected goals
55.9%
89th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.8%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 25 against. Expected: 42.8 and 33.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
81st
Numbers
89th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
44th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.49 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.06 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.8 mph
93rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 964 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TBL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.9% — 3.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 964 minutes at five-on-five — 57th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Pat Maroon56.5%53.8%40.6%
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare55.0%57.4%49.0%
Mikhail Sergachev57.8%54.6%50.8%

56.5% together, 53.8% for him apart and 40.6% for Maroon apart. Maroon was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Maroon than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

206 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 63% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.