Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

24

Zach Bogosian

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense

The 2nd-worst penalty differential of all 202 defencemen, and the 93rd-percentile hit rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09ATL4791019+11472119010.018:06
2009-10ATL81101323-18613101556.521:25
2010-11ATL7151217-27290011553.222:24
2011-12WPG6552530-3711001503.323:19
2012-13WPG335914-529000855.923:07
2013-14WPG553811+3480001342.222:55
2014-15WPG/BUF6231720-6780001252.423:39
2015-16BUF6471724-11683011215.822:21
2016-17BUF562911-1746001732.720:05
2017-18BUF18011-920000290.019:09
2018-19BUF6531619-552010933.221:38
2019-20BUF/TBL27167022000293.516:38
2020-21TOR45044+749000360.014:32
2021-22TBL48358+253001605.015:22
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—73756152208-7867393513354.220:48

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

48 games, 3 goals and 5 assists at 15:22 a night, plus-2, fifty-three penalty minutes, 60 shots. Third overall in 2008 by Atlanta, fourteen seasons, 737 games, 208 points.

The Finesse Game

46.4 per cent of the attempts is the 20th percentile among the 202 defencemen who played forty games and 47.8 per cent of the expected goals the 35th.

Both are the worst on this blue line, and the chair does not explain them: 47.5 per cent offensive-zone starts is the 249th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — a shade under even, and two Tampa defencemen took harder ones.

0.67 even-strength points per 60 is the 20th percentile and 0.57 takeaways per 60 the 17th.

4.88 shots per 60 is the 59th percentile at 5.0 per cent, from a 48-foot median with seven per cent from the slot.

His ice went 22-21 against an expectation of 29.63-32.42 — seven and a half short in front and eleven fewer against, which is why a man with the club’s worst possession numbers finished plus-2.

The Physical Game

1.46 penalties taken per 60 is the 96th percentile among defencemen and the net of minus-1.06 is the 2nd-worst of all 202.

9.28 hits per 60 is the 93rd percentile among defencemen, at 6-3 and 231 pounds on a 15:22 shift.

Those two go together and the second is not worth the first on a club that spent 4:59 a game short-handed — the 10th-largest penalty-killing workload in the league.

2.77 blocks per 60 is the 8th percentile, which for a defensive defenceman is the number that does not fit.

The Intangibles

21.8 mph is the 42nd percentile, 2.1 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 66th and 8.68 miles per 60 the 74th.

Ordinary in all three at 32, and his shot is 96.8 mph at the 73rd.

He is 32, third overall in 2008, with 208 points in 737 games across fourteen seasons. The hitting and fourteen seasons in the league are the case. The worst possession pair on the club, the 8th-percentile block rate and the second-worst penalty ledger of 202 defencemen are three separate reasons the ice stops at fifteen minutes.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “9.28 hits per 60 is the 93rd percentile among defencemen, at 6-3 and 231 pounds on a 15:22 shift.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.46 penalties taken per 60 is the 96th percentile among defencemen and the net of minus-1.06 is the 2nd-worst of all 202.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 713 minutes

Expected goals
47.8%
37th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.4%
25th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 22 for, 21 against. Expected: 29.6 and 32.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
37th

The report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 48 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
61st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.54 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.8 mph
81st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 713 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TBL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.8% — 4.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
713 minutes at five-on-five — 34th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ryan McDonagh46.9%48.4%50.5%
Corey Perry51.7%46.3%57.0%
Ross Colton47.2%48.0%55.2%

46.9% together, 48.4% for him apart and 50.5% for McDonagh apart. McDonagh was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

76 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 70% from beyond forty.