This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Pavel Buchnevich

A career 14.63 per cent shooter with 42 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	NYR	41	8	12	20	+6	13	1	0	0	55	14.5	13:16
2017-18	NYR	74	14	29	43	-3	20	5	0	4	136	10.3	15:01
2018-19	NYR	64	21	17	38	-10	13	7	0	1	119	17.6	15:10
2019-20	NYR	68	16	30	46	+2	24	4	0	1	148	10.8	16:56
2020-21	NYR	54	20	28	48	+12	42	1	3	2	120	16.7	18:44
2021-22	STL	73	30	46	76	+29	34	8	2	3	199	15.1	18:18
2022-23	STL	63	26	41	67	+14	36	8	0	2	123	21.1	19:27
2023-24	STL	80	27	36	63	+3	48	8	2	5	207	13.0	19:49
2024-25 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	517	162	239	401	+53	230	42	7	18	1107	14.6	17:17

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 27 goals and 36 assists for 63 points, 8 on the power play, 2 shorthanded, 48 penalty minutes, 19:49 a night and plus-3, with 5 game-winners. He took 49.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,115 minutes, the 50th percentile, and his ice went 50-44 against an expectation of 51.24-51.50.

A goal of finishing below what the chances were worth and seven goals of goaltending above them. The plus-3 is one of only two positive figures among the club’s leading forwards.

The Finesse Game

298 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 43 per cent of them from inside twenty, 198 of those on goal, converted at 13.0 per cent against a career 14.63 across 1,107 shots.

162 career goals and 239 assists in 517 games. A career 14.63 per cent from a winger who takes 43 per cent of his attempts inside twenty feet is a finisher who also goes to the right places; he is the most complete forward on this roster and the only one who does both halves of the job well.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 196 and took 48 penalty minutes.

230 career penalty minutes in 517 games. He plays heavier than the listed weight and will take a cross-check to hold the front of the net, and he answers back when it comes the other way.

The Intangibles

Seventy-fifth overall in 2013 by the Rangers, eight seasons, two organisations, and 401 points in 517 games.

Seven career shorthanded goals and a career plus-53 — the largest positive figure of any forward on this roster. He has scored between 26 and 30 in each of his three seasons in St. Louis.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
80 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
49.9% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 42.6% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.3, 95th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“A career 14.63 per cent from a winger who takes 43 per cent of his attempts inside twenty feet is a finisher who also goes to the right places; he is the most complete forward on this roster and the only one who does both halves of the job well.”
retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty
“He plays heavier than the listed weight and will take a cross-check to hold the front of the net, and he answers back when it comes the other way.”
penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short
“Seven career shorthanded goals and a career plus-53 — the largest positive figure of any forward on this roster.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,115 minutes

Expected goals: 49.9%; 52nd pct
Shot attempts: 51.4%; 67th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 44 against. Expected: 51.2 and 51.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

87th

Numbers

52nd

The report ranks him 35 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed: 23.1 mph; 91st pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.93 a game
Distance: 3.08 miles a game
Hardest shot: 94.5 mph; 90th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1115 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club: STL took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.9% — 5.1 above the club he did it on.
The role: First line, 1,115 minutes at five-on-five — 74th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Robert Thomas	51.6%	44.2%	44.9%
Jordan Kyrou	52.2%	46.5%	48.9%
Colton Parayko	47.5%	51.8%	42.8%

51.6% together, 44.2% for him apart and 44.9% for Thomas apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

298 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.