Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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81

Dylan Holloway

St. Louis Blues Left Wing

The best chance share on this roster, earned in 38 games in Edmonton.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23EDM51369027001446.89:35
2023-24EDM38639-1291005610.711:22
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—899918-1561011009.010:21

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

38 games with Edmonton, 6 goals and 3 assists for 9 points, 1 on the power play, 29 penalty minutes, 11:22 a night and minus-1. He took 54.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 425 minutes — the 84th percentile and the best chance share of anybody on this roster — and his ice went 13-14 against an expectation of 18.37-15.49.

Five goals of finishing below what the chances were worth across 425 minutes, which is a very large shortfall for the ice. The 54.2 per cent came behind the best chance-creating club in the league.

The Finesse Game

75 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 43 per cent of them from inside twenty, 53 of those on goal, converted at 10.7 per cent against a career 9.00 across 100 shots.

Nine career goals and 9 assists in 89 games. He is quick and direct and drives the net rather than the wall; there is not enough of a sample to say more than that, and 89 games in two seasons is why.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 207 and took 29 penalty minutes.

Fifty-six career penalty minutes in 89 games is a high rate for eleven minutes a night. He finishes checks hard and gets caught doing it, and the willingness is well ahead of the discipline at 23.

The Intangibles

Fourteenth overall in 2020 by Edmonton, two seasons, and St. Louis will be his second organisation.

A career minus-1 in 89 games. He was a top-fifteen pick who has played 89 games in two seasons, and St. Louis has bought the chance to find out why.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He finishes checks hard and gets caught doing it, and the willingness is well ahead of the discipline at 23.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is quick and direct and drives the net rather than the wall; there is not enough of a sample to say more than that, and 89 games in two seasons is why.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 425 minutes

Expected goals
54.2%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
59.2%
98th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 14 against. Expected: 18.4 and 15.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
83rd

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 38 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
81st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.05 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.99 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
83.8 mph
32nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with EDM · 425 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
EDM took 56.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.2% — 2.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
425 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ryan McLeod57.5%51.1%56.4%
Brett Kulak49.7%56.5%55.3%
Cody Ceci49.4%57.0%52.3%

57.5% together, 51.1% for him apart and 56.4% for McLeod apart. He was worse away from McLeod, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than McLeod did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

75 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.