Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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10

Brayden Schenn

St. Louis Blues Center

Ninety career power-play goals in 940 games, and a minus-22 last season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10LAK1000-100000—12:31
2010-11LAK8022-10000110.011:15
2011-12PHI5412618-7344039712.414:07
2012-13PHI4781826-8242007910.115:32
2013-14PHI8220214105440617811.215:45
2014-15PHI82182947-53470615611.517:05
2015-16PHI80263359+333110517814.616:54
2016-17PHI79253055-1338170717814.017:48
2017-18STL82284270+105680821013.319:44
2018-19STL72173754+34040515910.718:35
2019-20STL71253358+344100413818.118:28
2020-21STL56162036-23560211314.219:09
2021-22STL62243458+213370311121.617:47
2022-23STL82214465-275060314414.618:26
2023-24STL82202646-225641317011.817:47
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—940260375635-4653190155192213.517:30

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games, 20 goals and 26 assists for 46 points, 4 on the power play, 1 shorthanded, 56 penalty minutes, 17:47 a night and minus-22, with 3 game-winners. He took 43.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,102 minutes, the 22nd percentile, and his ice went 46-53 against an expectation of 41.00-52.97.

Five goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and level at the other end. The minus-22 is the worst figure on the club and it came on the second-lowest chance share of any regular forward here.

The Finesse Game

264 attempts at a median of 29 feet with 34 per cent of them from inside twenty, 174 of those on goal, converted at 11.8 per cent against a career 13.53 across 1,922 shots.

260 career goals and 375 assists in 940 games, and 90 of the goals on the power play. He works from the top of the crease outward and gets to the net-front spot on the power play faster than a 33-year-old centre should; 55 career game-winners is the return.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 200 and took 56 penalty minutes.

531 career penalty minutes in 940 games. He is the most physical forward on this roster — he cross-checks in front, finishes every check available and fights when the club needs it — and fifteen seasons of that is why he wears the letter.

The Intangibles

Fifth overall in 2009 by Los Angeles, fifteen seasons, three organisations, and 635 points in 940 games.

A career minus-46 across fifteen seasons. He is 33, he has scored twenty or more in nine different seasons, and the club has asked him to do the hardest job on it for seven years.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 20 goals late or in overtime, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He works from the top of the crease outward and gets to the net-front spot on the power play faster than a 33-year-old centre should; 55 career game-winners is the return.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is the most physical forward on this roster — he cross-checks in front, finishes every check available and fights when the club needs it — and fifteen seasons of that is why he wears the letter.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He is 33, he has scored twenty or more in nine different seasons, and the club has asked him to do the hardest job on it for seven years.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,102 minutes

Expected goals
43.6%
13th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.6%
11th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 53 against. Expected: 41.0 and 53.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
13th

The report ranks him 77 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
41st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.45 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.85 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.5 mph
61st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1102 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
STL took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.6% — 1.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,102 minutes at five-on-five — 72nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brandon Saad45.9%42.0%44.0%
Jake Neighbours41.2%45.3%44.2%
Colton Parayko39.4%46.4%46.3%

45.9% together, 42.0% for him apart and 44.0% for Saad apart. He was worse away from Saad, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Saad did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

264 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 23 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.