Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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18

Robert Thomas

St. Louis Blues Center

Twenty-six goals and 60 assists at 25, on a club that took the thirtieth-largest share of the chances in hockey.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19STL7092433-2143008011.313:04
2019-20STL66103242+9181028711.514:34
2020-21STL333912+1100012213.613:36
2021-22STL72205777+171632611517.418:46
2022-23STL73184765-82251210617.019:21
2023-24STL82266086+94881317015.320:58
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—39686229315+261282041458014.817:11

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games, 26 goals and 60 assists for 86 points, 8 on the power play, 1 shorthanded, 48 penalty minutes, 20:58 a night and plus-9, with 3 game-winners. He took 49.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,211 minutes, the 49th percentile, and his ice went 60-43 against an expectation of 56.81-57.98.

Three goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and fifteen goals of goaltending above them — the largest such figure on the club, marginally ahead of Nick Leddy. Eighty-six points is a career high by nine.

The Finesse Game

242 attempts at a median of 27 feet with 39 per cent of them from inside twenty, 171 of those on goal, converted at 15.3 per cent against a career 14.83 across 580 shots.

229 career assists against 86 goals in 396 games. He holds the puck below the goal line longer than anybody on this club and waits for the second man rather than the first, which is why sixty assists came out of a club that took 45 per cent of the attempts.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 207 and took 48 penalty minutes.

128 career penalty minutes in 396 games. He is not a physical centre in either direction, but he is strong enough on his stick to hold a puck against pressure in the corner, and almost everything he creates starts from that.

The Intangibles

Twentieth overall in 2017 by St. Louis, six seasons, one organisation, and 315 points in 396 games.

A career plus-26 on clubs that have mostly been outchanced. He is 25, he has had two seventy-point seasons and one of eighty-six, and he is the reason this club is not rebuilding.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    49.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 42.4% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.1, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:46 a game at five-on-five, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He holds the puck below the goal line longer than anybody on this club and waits for the second man rather than the first, which is why sixty assists came out of a club that took 45 per cent of the attempts.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He is not a physical centre in either direction, but he is strong enough on his stick to hold a puck against pressure in the corner, and almost everything he creates starts from that.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He is 25, he has had two seventy-point seasons and one of eighty-six, and he is the reason this club is not rebuilding.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,211 minutes

Expected goals
49.5%
49th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.4%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 43 against. Expected: 56.8 and 58.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
49th

The report ranks him 41 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
51st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.89 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.34 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.8 mph
56th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1211 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
STL took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.5% — 4.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,211 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Pavel Buchnevich51.6%44.9%44.2%
Jordan Kyrou50.9%47.6%50.6%
Colton Parayko46.1%52.5%43.3%

51.6% together, 44.9% for him apart and 44.2% for Buchnevich apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

242 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 27 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.