Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

72

Justin Faulk

St. Louis Blues Defense

Two goals on 132 shots — a 1.52 per cent rate, the second-lowest of anybody in this edition who shot a hundred times.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12CAR6681422-16295021017.922:51
2012-13CAR3851015+115110766.624:00
2013-14CAR7652732-9372011523.323:25
2014-15CAR82153449-19307242386.324:26
2015-16CAR64162137-222712041848.724:03
2016-17CAR75172037-18324022257.623:08
2017-18CAR7682331-26483032113.822:16
2018-19CAR82112435+9476032175.122:25
2019-20STL6951116-3321011473.420:34
2020-21STL5671825+11351021176.024:16
2021-22STL76163147+41431061679.623:12
2022-23STL82113950-4342031965.623:23
2023-24STL6022830-2391011321.521:58
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—902126300426-574484633221635.823:03

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

60 games, 2 goals and 28 assists for 30 points, 1 on the power play, 39 penalty minutes, 21:58 a night and minus-2, with 1 game-winner. He took 46.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,113 minutes, the 34th percentile, and his ice went 42-50 against an expectation of 45.40-51.63.

Three goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and two goals of goaltending above them. Two goals on 132 shots is a 1.52 per cent rate — the second-lowest of anybody in this edition who shot a hundred times — against a career 5.83.

The Finesse Game

173 attempts at a median of 47 feet with 66 per cent of them from beyond forty and 10 per cent from inside twenty, 129 of those on goal, converted at 1.5 per cent against a career 5.83 across 2,163 shots.

300 career assists and 46 power-play goals in 902 games. Twenty-eight assists in 60 games says the distribution has not gone anywhere; the shot has stopped going in and there is no obvious reason in the chart for why.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 208 and took 39 penalty minutes.

448 career penalty minutes in 902 games. He is a compact, heavy defenceman who steps up in the neutral zone and finishes the check, and thirteen seasons of playing that way at twenty-three minutes a night is the reason for the total.

The Intangibles

Thirty-seventh overall in 2010 by Carolina, thirteen seasons, two organisations, and 426 points in 902 games.

A career minus-57 across thirteen seasons, most of them on clubs that were outchanced. He is 32 and has played twenty-two minutes a night or more in eleven different seasons.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Twenty-eight assists in 60 games says the distribution has not gone anywhere; the shot has stopped going in and there is no obvious reason in the chart for why.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is a compact, heavy defenceman who steps up in the neutral zone and finishes the check, and thirteen seasons of playing that way at twenty-three minutes a night is the reason for the total.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,113 minutes

Expected goals
46.8%
31st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.7%
26th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 50 against. Expected: 45.4 and 51.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
31st

The report ranks him 45 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 60 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
36th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.67 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.94 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
97.8 mph
86th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1113 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
STL took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.8% — 2.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,113 minutes at five-on-five — 74th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Torey Krug45.9%49.2%44.4%
Jordan Kyrou46.2%47.1%52.8%
Brandon Saad47.1%46.6%43.6%

45.9% together, 49.2% for him apart and 44.4% for Krug apart. He was better away from Krug, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Krug.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

173 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 50 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.