San Jose Sharks

Pacific Division, Western Conference · 24 reports in the 2022-23 edition.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2021-22 · 82 games · 218 for, 255 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 45.6% 31st of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 47.4% 22nd of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.69 28th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.67 22nd of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -11.5 29th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -8.9 20th of 32

San Jose Sharks scored 11.5 fewer goals than their chances were worth and got 8.9 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 20 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.0; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 8.0%; of skater points
From under 26: 40.3%; of skater points
Homegrown: 59.3%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 59.4%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

The 31st-best attempt share in hockey and the 22nd-best chance share — nine places of difference, bought by burying five forwards among the ninety hardest chairs in the league.

Who this names 8 of 24 on the roster · 43% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Alexander Barabanov, Logan Couture, Aaron Dell, Jonah Gadjovich, Noah Gregor, Tomas Hertl, Kaapo Kahkonen, Luke Kunin, Kevin Labanc, Oskar Lindblom, Steven Lorentz, Timo Meier, James Reimer, Radim Simek, Evgeny Svechnikov, Jeffrey Viel.

What the Quant Says

32-37-13, 77 points, 22nd in the league. 214 goals for, 30th; 264 against, 21st.

And 31st in attempt share at 45.6 per cent, 22nd in chance share at 47.4. Only Arizona held the puck less and nine clubs gave up more dangerous shots. That gap is the whole design of the roster.

Finishing rated 29th at minus-11.5 and goaltending 20th at minus-8.9. The five-on-five ledger: goals for 142 against an expectation of 153.5, goals against 179 against an expectation of 170.1.

Eleven and a half goals short in front and nine more against than the model asked. Both columns went the wrong way and neither by an enormous amount.

A club that scored 214 goals and finished 22nd is not a disaster; it is a club with two very good forwards, one very good defenceman and nothing underneath any of them.

What the Scout Says

San Jose finished 31st in the league in attempt share and 22nd in chance share. Nine places of difference between how little they held the puck and how well they held the middle of the ice. That is not an accident and the deployment file explains it.

Five San Jose forwards finished in the bottom five per cent of the league for offensive-zone time. Nick Bonino's 36.5 per cent is the lowest of all 365 forwards the tracking covers, Noah Gregor's 37.6 the 3rd percentile, Matt Nieto's 38.0 the 4th, Alexander Barabanov's 38.6 the 7th and Kevin Labanc's 38.6 the 6th.

And the same is true on the blue line. Mario Ferraro's 38.1 per cent is the 1st percentile among defencemen — the hardest deployment at the position in the league — with Marc-Edouard Vlasic at the 5th and Jaycob Megna at the 8th.

By end-zone starts: Nico Sturm 34.2 per cent at the 37th-lowest of 652, Bonino 35.4 at the 45th, Matt Benning 37.0 at the 57th, Nieto 39.8 at the 86th, Megna 40.0 at the 89th. Five men among the ninety hardest chairs in hockey.

What it bought: Bonino took 40.4 per cent of the attempts — the 4th-lowest of 393 forwards — and 44.2 per cent of the expected goals. Nieto 43.9 and 47.4. Ferraro 44.8 and 45.9. In every case the chance share is the better number and in Bonino's case by four points.

What it cost: nobody else was sheltered. Erik Karlsson at 51.8 per cent is the softest chair on the roster and it is the 277th of 652. This club has no soft minutes at all, and 214 goals is what a roster without them scores.

Who this names 5 of 15 forwards · 43% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Nick Bonino, Jonah Gadjovich, Luke Kunin, Kevin Labanc, Oskar Lindblom, Steven Lorentz, Matt Nieto, Nico Sturm, Evgeny Svechnikov, Jeffrey Viel.

What the Quant Says

214 goals, 30th in the league, off the 27th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.374 per 60). Finishing rated 29th at minus-11.5, so three or four more places were lost there.

Timo Meier took 326 shots — 13.26 per 60, the 3rd-most of 393 forwards — and scored thirty-five. Tomas Hertl scored thirty from a 20-foot median with sixty-two per cent of his attempts in the slot.

Those two arrived at sixty-five goals by opposite methods and the rest of the roster produced 149.

Logan Couture took fifty-six points at 33 and Alexander Barabanov thirty-nine, twenty-nine of them assists, off the 14th-percentile shot rate.

Erik Karlsson produced thirty-five points in fifty games from the blue line. Brent Burns, who led the club in ice time, has gone to Carolina.

What the Scout Says

Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl scored sixty-five goals between them by opposite methods and the contrast is worth setting out.

Meier fired 13.26 shots per 60 — the 3rd-most of all 393 qualified forwards — with thirty-eight per cent of them from the slot, the 9th-lowest, at a 31-foot median. Hertl fired 7.52 per 60 with sixty-two per cent from the slot at a 20-foot median. Meier converted 10.7 per cent, Hertl 14.6. Three hundred and twenty-six shots against 205, thirty-five goals against thirty.

Noah Gregor is the cautionary version of Meier's file. Thirty-two per cent from the slot, the 12th-lowest of 393, at a 32-foot median in the 96th percentile, on a 97.2 mph shot — and 5.1 per cent shooting. A hundred and fifty-six shots produced eight goals.

Alexander Barabanov took twenty-nine assists off 5.14 shots per 60, the 14th percentile.

Logan Couture's 2.55 takeaways per 60 is the 21st-most of 393 forwards at 33.

Who this names 5 of 6 defencemen · 91% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Radim Simek.

What the Quant Says

264 goals against, 21st in the league, off the 18th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.630 per 60). The structure and the result agree and both are below the middle.

Mario Ferraro played 23:00 a night out of the 1st-percentile offensive-zone time — the hardest deployment of any defenceman in the league — and took 2.03 shots per 60, the 2nd-fewest of the 202.

Erik Karlsson has the 2nd-fewest hits and 3rd-fewest blocks of the 202, against the 2nd-most takeaways and the 4th-most giveaways.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic took 43.8 per cent of the attempts in a sixteenth season, the 6th percentile, on a workload six minutes below his career average.

Jaycob Megna's 78.7 mph shot is the softest of all 192 defencemen the tracking measures. Matt Benning arrives having taken sixty-one shots without scoring — the second-longest goalless run in hockey.

What the Scout Says

Erik Karlsson's file is four separate extremes in one season. The 2nd-fewest hits of 202 defencemen, the 3rd-fewest blocks, the 2nd-most takeaways and the 4th-most giveaways — and a 93rd-percentile even-strength point rate on top.

He also sprints more often than all but three of the 192 defencemen the tracking measures while covering less total ground than seventy per cent of them. Short, explosive shifts, and fifty games of them.

Mario Ferraro is the exact opposite and he is 24. Twenty-three minutes a night out of the 1st-percentile offensive-zone time, 6.25 blocks per 60 at the 93rd, 2:38 short-handed at the 85th — and 2.03 shots per 60, the 2nd-fewest at the position.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic is playing 15:13 a night against a career average of 21:15, with the 6th-percentile attempt share and 0.4 sprints per 60 at the 8th. The top speed is still the 51st percentile; the willingness to use it is not.

Jaycob Megna took a league-average chance share out of the 89th-hardest chair of 652 at nineteen minutes a night, with the softest shot of all 192 defencemen — one attempt from inside twenty feet all season.

Who this names 3 of 3 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

20th in the league at minus-8.9 goals saved above expectation, from three goaltenders who were close together.

James Reimer posted .9110 across 48 games and 1,450 shots, 24th of the 53 who played twenty-five. Adin Hill .9059 across twenty-five, 31st of the same 53, and he has gone to Vegas.

Kaapo Kahkonen arrived from Minnesota and finished at .9119 across thirty-six games all told, 21st of the 53.

Reimer is 34 with 12,640 career shots at .9128 — the largest body of evidence of any goaltender in this batch — and has never played more than forty-eight games in a season.

Kahkonen is 26 with 1,920. Aaron Dell returns at 33, having gone .8858, .9067, .8571 and .8927 across his last four years.

What the Scout Says

James Reimer has faced 12,640 NHL shots at .9128 across twelve seasons. That is more evidence than any other goaltender in this batch of four clubs, and it has been gathered forty games at a time.

Ten of his twelve seasons fall between .9059 and .9236. No year has ever exceeded .9236 and only two have fallen below .9050. He has never played more than forty-eight games, and last season was the first time he reached that.

A little above league average, every single year, for twelve years, without ever being trusted with a starter's schedule — that is an unusual record and it is worth reading beside Philipp Grubauer's in Seattle, where nine of the same kind of seasons were followed by a collapse.

Kaapo Kahkonen is 26 with 1,920 career shots at .9083, and last season is his largest sample and his second-best figure. Adin Hill's .9059 has gone to Vegas.

The crease rated 20th at minus-8.9, in front of the 31st-ranked attempt share in the league. A .9110 behind a club that could not hold the puck is a better number than it looks, and this is one of the few columns on this roster where the club is not obviously worse than it was.

Who this names 9 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

12th in the league at 6.242 expected goals against per 60, over 4:31 a night — the 25th-largest workload. The best thing about this club by some distance.

Mario Ferraro kills 2:38 a night at the 85th percentile among defencemen and blocks 6.25 shots per 60 at the 93rd, at 24.

Logan Couture takes 1:54, the 43rd-most of 393 forwards, and Matt Nieto 1:45 at the 83rd percentile with six career short-handed goals. Nick Bonino 1:37 and the 2nd-most blocks of the 393.

2021-22 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.