This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Steven Lorentz
San Jose Sharks Center
A 57.0 per cent chance share on the club that reached the Cup final, and the 98th-percentile offensive-zone time behind it.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | CAR | 45 | 2 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 5.0 | 10:26 |
| 2021-22 | CAR | 67 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 10.0 | 10:53 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 112 | 10 | 11 | 21 | +1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 120 | 8.3 | 10:42 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
67 games for Carolina, 8 goals and 5 assists at 10:53 a night, even, eight penalty minutes, 80 shots. One hundred and eighty-sixth overall in 2015 by Carolina — the last round — and 112 NHL games out of it at 10:42 a night.
The Finesse Game
57.0 per cent of the expected goals is the 94th percentile among forwards and 51.6 per cent of the attempts the 66th. That is the best chance share attached to any name in this chapter and it needs its context immediately.
Forty-six point two per cent of his even-strength ice was spent in the offensive zone, the 98th percentile of the 568 skaters the tracking covers, and he started 55.6 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 161st-highest of the 652.
Carolina finished 2nd in the league in attempt share, 3rd in chances and 1st on the penalty kill. A fourth-line forward given the offensive zone on that club is being handed the number.
Fifty-one per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 20-foot median, at 6-4 and 219 pounds.
Eight goals from eighty shots is 10.0 per cent off 6.82 shots per 60 at the 41st percentile.
His ice went 23-23 against an expectation of 33.71-25.42 — ten and a half goals short in front, which is the largest shortfall of anybody in this chapter and the exact opposite of what a 57 per cent share predicts.
The Physical Game
4.35 hits per 60 is the 56th percentile and 2.13 blocks the 70th at 219 pounds.
Eight penalty minutes in sixty-seven games, and sixteen across a 112-game career. He is one of the most disciplined forwards in this batch.
The Intangibles
22.3 mph is the 52nd percentile and 1.6 bursts a game the 74th, against 1.87 miles a game at the 8th percentile — the shift length again, at under eleven minutes.
His shot is 91.4 mph, the 49th percentile.
He is 26, a seventh-round pick, with 112 NHL games and twenty-one points. The shot chart, the size and the discipline are three real things. The 57.0 per cent chance share is not one of them — it was produced in the offensive zone on the best possession club in the East, and San Jose finished 31st in attempt share.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- disciplined· stays out of the box
0.12 penalty minutes a game over 67, 4th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it
“Fifty-one per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 20-foot median, at 6-4 and 219 pounds.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 704 minutes
- Expected goals
- 57%
- 94th pct
- Shot attempts
- 55.6%
- 90th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 23 against. Expected: 33.7 and 25.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 36 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 67 games
- Top speed
- 22.3 mph
- 60th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.58 a game
- Distance
- 1.87 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 91.4 mph
- 74th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 with CAR · 704 minutes at five-on-five
- Derek Stepan40%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- CAR took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.0% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 704 minutes at five-on-five — 32nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Stepan | 61.6% | 54.1% | 52.3% |
| Jaccob Slavin | 55.3% | 58.0% | 57.7% |
| Brady Skjei | 59.6% | 55.8% | 52.3% |
61.6% together, 54.1% for him apart and 52.3% for Stepan apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
112 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 51% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.