Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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88

Jaycob Megna

San Jose Sharks Defense

The softest shot of all 192 defencemen — 78.7 mph — at 6-6 and 214 pounds.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17ANA1000+100000—15:20
2017-18ANA14011-4200070.015:43
2018-19ANA28134-112000313.214:32
2021-22SJS44268-116000405.019:07
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—8731013-530000783.917:03

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

44 games, 2 goals and 6 assists at 19:07 a night, minus-1, sixteen penalty minutes, 40 shots. Two hundred and tenth overall in 2012 by Anaheim — the seventh round — four seasons, 87 games, 13 points.

The Finesse Game

His shot is 78.7 mph, the softest of all 192 defencemen the tracking measures and the 4th-softest of the 557 skaters it covers. Twenty miles an hour slower than Erik Karlsson on the same blue line.

Ninety-eight per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 54-foot median, and eighty-five per cent of them from beyond forty feet, at 6-6.

Two per cent of his shots came from inside twenty feet — a single attempt out of forty across the whole season.

49.5 per cent of the expected goals across 760 five-on-five minutes, which is the third-best figure on this blue line, out of 40.0 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 89th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

A league-average chance share out of one of the ninety hardest chairs in hockey, at nineteen minutes a night, is a genuinely good result — and his ice went 27-28 against an expectation of 30.32-30.93, which is close to level in both directions on a club that finished 22nd.

The Physical Game

6-6 and 214 pounds, which is light for the height, and sixteen penalty minutes in forty-four games.

Thirty penalty minutes across an eighty-seven-game career. He is a very large man who is almost never in the box.

The Intangibles

21.1 mph is the 5th percentile of the 568 skaters the tracking covers and 0.3 bursts a game the 10th, against 2.56 miles a game at the 46th.

Slow, almost never at speed, and covering an ordinary amount of ground at nineteen minutes a night. The reach is doing the work and the record says so in three separate columns.

He is 29, a seventh-round pick, and has eighty-seven NHL games across four calendar years. The chair, the chance share, the reach and the discipline are four real things. The softest shot at the position in the league and forty attempts in forty-four games are why he has never had a full season.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    40% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 8th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “Ninety-eight per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 54-foot median, and eighty-five per cent of them from beyond forty feet, at 6-6.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 760 minutes

Expected goals
49.5%
53rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.4%
25th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 28 against. Expected: 30.3 and 30.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
9th
Numbers
53rd

The numbers rank him 44 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 50 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 44 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
32nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.27 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.56 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
78.7 mph
8th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 760 minutes at five-on-five

  • Brent Burnsnow CAR34%
  • Nicolas Melocheoff the roster24%
  • Ryan Merkleyoff the roster18%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SJS took 47.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.5% — 2.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
760 minutes at five-on-five — 37th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brent Burns50.8%48.8%46.0%
Tomas Hertl57.2%46.3%47.0%
Timo Meier61.1%44.7%53.0%

50.8% together, 48.8% for him apart and 46.0% for Burns apart. Burns was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Burns than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

48 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 57 feet. 2% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 85% from beyond forty.