Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

Marc-Edouard Vlasic

San Jose Sharks Defense

The 6th-percentile attempt share of 202 defencemen in a sixteenth season, on the 8th-percentile workload.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2006-07SJS8132326+1318200664.522:12
2007-08SJS8221214-1224100722.821:37
2008-09SJS8263036+15423011045.823:54
2009-10SJS6431316+2133100744.022:05
2010-11SJS8041418+14180021163.520:52
2011-12SJS8241923+11400011193.423:09
2012-13SJS48347+529000595.120:49
2013-14SJS8151924+31380101383.620:43
2014-15SJS7091423+1223003989.222:07
2015-16SJS6783139+15482001166.923:08
2016-17SJS7562228+4351021444.221:14
2017-18SJS81112132+9341021616.822:33
2018-19SJS7232225-6100001003.021:03
2019-20SJS7051015-1010011746.820:18
2020-21SJS51156-88000372.717:31
2021-22SJS7531114-2218000634.815:13
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—116176270346+924281121215414.921:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

75 games, 3 goals and 11 assists at 15:13 a night, minus-22, eighteen penalty minutes, 63 shots. Thirty-fifth overall in 2005. Sixteen seasons, 1,161 games, 346 points and a career plus-92, all of it for one club.

The Finesse Game

Ninety-three per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 54-foot median, the 87th percentile among defencemen.

0.78 even-strength points per 60 is the 30th percentile and none of his points came on the power play — two seconds a night. 3.31 shots per 60 is the 21st percentile.

44.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 11th percentile and 43.8 per cent of the attempts the 6th — the bottom sixteenth of the position in both — out of 42.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 118th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

The chair is hard and it does not account for the shares. Mario Ferraro started at 43.7 per cent and took 45.9 of the expected goals off nearly eight more minutes a night.

His ice went 27-49 against an expectation of 34.35-42.31. Seven goals short in front and seven more against than the model asked — and the minus-22 is those two together.

The Physical Game

2.84 hits per 60 is the 33rd percentile and 4.73 blocks the 69th at 6-1 and 205 pounds.

Eighteen penalty minutes in seventy-five games against 0.32 penalties drawn per 60 and 0.47 taken. He has never been a heavy player and 428 penalty minutes across sixteen seasons is the record of a very disciplined one.

The Intangibles

0.4 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 8th percentile among defencemen and 8.24 miles per 60 is the 26th, against a 22.0 mph top speed at the 51st.

The top speed is still there and the willingness to reach it is not — which at 35, in a sixteenth season, is the shape the decline takes.

Fifteen minutes and thirteen seconds a night is the 8th percentile of the position, and his career average is 21:15.

He is 35 with 1,161 games on one club. The reach, the shot chart and the discipline are what remain. A six-minute drop from his career workload, the two worst possession shares on this blue line and a minus-22 are what the sixteenth season looks like.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    83.5% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 93rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “Ninety-three per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 54-foot median, the 87th percentile among defencemen.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Sixteen seasons, 1,161 games, 346 points and a career plus-92, all of it for one club.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,071 minutes

Expected goals
44.8%
17th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.8%
9th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 49 against. Expected: 34.4 and 42.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
17th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 75 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.11 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.09 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.9 mph
47th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1071 minutes at five-on-five

  • Nicolas Melocheoff the roster27%
  • Ryan Merkleyoff the roster22%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SJS took 47.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.8% — 2.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,071 minutes at five-on-five — 72nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Timo Meier49.4%42.6%55.7%
Tomas Hertl47.2%43.8%49.2%
Nicolas Meloche41.6%45.9%46.2%

49.4% together, 42.6% for him apart and 55.7% for Meier apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Meier and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

97 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 58 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 82% from beyond forty.