San Jose Sharks

What the Quant Says

210 goals — fewest in the league — and 31st at creating chances at even strength at 2.196 expected goals per 60. There is no reading of the attack that is good and there is one reading that matters.

Macklin Celebrini scored 25 goals and 63 points in 70 games at 18 and won the Calder Trophy. His five-on-five chance share was 49.6 per cent, the 47th percentile — dead average, on a club that was 31st in the league. No other line on this roster came close to breaking even.

William Eklund had 41 assists at 22, Tyler Toffoli scored 30 goals on 233 shots, and Will Smith had 45 points as a 19-year-old rookie. Three of the club's top four scorers were 22 or younger.

Finishing was 16th, 1.6 goals under expectation, which means the club scored what its chances deserved. The chances were the problem.

What the Scout Says

A teenager who is already the best player on the ice most nights, and a 30-goal scorer to give him somewhere to put the puck.

Macklin Celebrini took 236 shots at a median of 33 feet — he shoots from further out than he will in three years, because at 18 on this roster he was rarely handed anything closer. 38 assists says the passing is already the more advanced half of the game.

Tyler Toffoli's release is among the quickest in the league and 233 attempts produced 30 goals on a club that scored 204. William Eklund takes 45 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at 5-10 and 185, which is a small man insisting on the hard part of the ice.

Adam Gaudette converted 19 of 90 shots — 21.1 per cent, the highest rate of any player in this edition — and was signed in the summer. Jeff Skinner has 373 career goals and could not get more than thirteen minutes a night in Edmonton.

Underneath it there is nothing. Barclay Goodrow had 3 assists in 77 games and Ty Dellandrea scored once in 68.

What the Quant Says

315 goals against — most in the league — and 30th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.805 per 60. At five-on-five it conceded 193 goals against an expectation of 170.

Mario Ferraro played 21:24 a night, the most on the club, at 5-11 and 200 pounds, and finished minus-25. His ice conceded thirteen goals above expectation. Timothy Liljegren, acquired from Toronto in November, finished minus-25 as well.

Vincent Desharnais is 6-7 and took 93 per cent of his shot attempts from beyond 40 feet and none at all from inside 20. Shakir Mukhamadullin is 6-4 and 23 and put up 7 assists in 30 games, which is the most promising thing on the blue line.

Dmitry Orlov and Nick Leddy were signed in the summer — 1,909 games between them, on the youngest defence in hockey.

What the Scout Says

The youngest blue line in hockey, one genuinely enormous man, and two veterans signed to make it survivable.

Mario Ferraro is 5-11 and 200 and blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league. He finishes every check, he clears his crease against men who outweigh him considerably, and he has played 408 games on hockey teams that finished near the bottom — a career minus-120 that is a fact about the clubs.

Vincent Desharnais is 6-7 and 225 and clears the front of his own net by standing in it. He has 1 goal in 165 career games and takes 93 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet, and under a forecheck the exits stop entirely.

Shakir Mukhamadullin is 6-4 and 23 and the only defenceman here with a top-four ceiling. He carries the puck out of his own zone, the first pass is ambitious, and 7 assists in 30 games is a promising rate. Timothy Liljegren can skate and the decisions with the puck are where his career has stalled.

Dmitry Orlov is 5-11 and 215 and built like a fire hydrant — very hard to move, clears his crease against men half a foot taller, and has a career plus-134.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 23.0 goals worse than the chances faced, 30th in the league, behind the 30th-ranked chance suppression. Five goaltenders played.

Yaroslav Askarov went 4-6-2 with an .8964 in 13 games at 22. He was the 11th pick in 2020 — the highest a goaltender had gone in over a decade — and San Jose acquired him from Nashville in the summer of 2024 for a young defenceman and a second-round pick. Thirteen games behind the worst defensive club in the league is not evidence of anything.

Alexandar Georgiev played 29 games, Mackenzie Blackwood 19 and Vitek Vanecek 18, and none of the three is on the roster. The crease has been deliberately cleared. Alex Nedeljkovic was acquired from Pittsburgh to play forty games in front of the 23-year-old.

What the Scout Says

The most valuable goaltending prospect in hockey, thirteen NHL games, and a crease cleared out entirely to make room for him.

Yaroslav Askarov is 6-3 and 180 and thin for the position, which is the one physical question about him. He plays an athletic, reactive style — he meets the shooter high in the crease and relies on quickness rather than on covering the net. The glove is exceptional and the lateral movement is very quick.

The rebound control is the unfinished part, which is the usual complaint about a goaltender who relies on reflexes, and behind a club conceding at the 30th-ranked rate it was punished constantly.

Alex Nedeljkovic is 6-0 and 205 and small for the modern position, which means the technique has to be exact and it is not always. The rebound control is the weakness and he handles the puck genuinely well. He was a Calder finalist in 2021 with a .9317 and has not been near that since.

What the Quant Says

27th in the league at 6.401 expected goals per 60, over 5:01 a night — the 12th-most power-play time in hockey. Below average on an above-average amount of opportunity.

Macklin Celebrini scored 8 power-play goals, Tyler Toffoli 6, William Eklund 6 and Will Smith 5. For a unit built out of teenagers that is not a bad distribution, and the rate says the structure around them is not there yet.

There is no net-front presence on the roster at all. Jeff Skinner and Adam Gaudette were signed in the summer, which adds two finishers and no size, and the club's only genuinely heavy forwards are a 22-year-old with one career goal and a 38-year-old enforcer.

What the Scout Says

Four young forwards with real skill and nobody to stand in front of the goaltender.

Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith are both genuine power-play creators and between them they scored 13 of the club's power-play goals. William Eklund holds the puck on the half wall until a lane opens, which is the single most valuable habit on a unit like this.

Tyler Toffoli is the finisher — he arrives at the right spot and needs somebody to find him, and on this roster he found two teenagers who could.

The absence is size. Nobody on this power play is heavier than 205 pounds and nobody on it wants to stand in the blue paint. Adam Gaudette goes to the net and converts what arrives there, which is the closest thing the roster has, and he is 6-1 and 190.

On the 12th-most power-play time in the league, 27th is a waste of the one thing this club has.

What the Quant Says

Dead last in the league at 8.178 expected goals against per 60, over 4:53 a game. Not 31st. Last, and it is the worst single unit in this edition.

Alexander Wennberg took 14 penalty minutes in 77 games and Adam Gaudette 12 in 81, and both are first-unit killers. Barclay Goodrow blocks shots and fights and is exactly the sort of forward a kill wants — and his five-on-five chance share was the worst of any regular in this book.

On the blue line it is Ferraro and Desharnais: a 5-11 shot-blocker who clears his crease against men who outweigh him, and a 6-7 defenceman who takes the net-front by standing in it.

The personnel is not obviously worse than several units that finished twenty places higher. Dead last at 8.178 is a structural number, and it is the phase a new roster should be able to fix first.

What the Scout Says

The worst unit in this edition, with personnel that does not obviously explain it.

Alexander Wennberg took 14 penalty minutes in 77 games at nearly nineteen a night and is the first-unit centre — a slow, controlled player who rarely turns the puck over. Adam Gaudette took 12 in 81 and was signed to add another. Barclay Goodrow forechecks hard, blocks shots and fights.

Mario Ferraro blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league and Vincent Desharnais is 6-7 in front of the net.

That is a competent group of penalty killers and it finished dead last in the league at 8.178 expected goals against per 60. Nothing about the men explains a number that far out, which points at what they are being asked to do.