Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

83

Matt Nieto

San Jose Sharks Left Wing

The 35th-fewest shots per 60 of 393 forwards and the 8th-percentile attempt share, on the 83rd-percentile kill.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14SJS66101424-4161021248.114:05
2014-15SJS72101727-12201011357.415:15
2015-16SJS678917-810021908.913:10
2016-17SJS/COL597613-128001858.214:56
2017-18COL74151126+6140118417.914:55
2018-19COL6441923+28011864.713:46
2019-20COL7081321+76023859.413:30
2020-21SJS28527-440004511.114:00
2021-22SJS7061117-2019000827.314:24
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—57073102175-4510526108168.914:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

70 games, 6 goals and 11 assists at 14:24 a night, minus-20, nineteen penalty minutes, 82 shots. Forty-seventh overall in 2011 by San Jose, nine seasons, 570 games, 175 points.

The Finesse Game

4.88 shots per 60 is the 35th-fewest of the 393 forwards who played forty games and 7.3 per cent shooting is the 15th percentile. His shot is 85.0 mph, the 16th. Six goals came out of the whole season.

1.16 even-strength points per 60 is the 13th percentile and none of his points came on the power play — four seconds a night.

47.4 per cent of the expected goals is the 31st percentile and 43.9 per cent of the attempts the 8th, out of 39.8 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 86th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

Thirty-eight per cent of his even-strength ice was in the offensive zone, the 4th percentile among forwards — and his team-mate Nick Bonino has the lowest figure of all 365.

A three-and-a-half point gap between chance share and attempt share out of that chair is the case for him, and his ice went 26-43 against an expectation of 27.48-30.49.

The Physical Game

2.80 blocks per 60 is the 89th percentile among forwards, at 5-11 and 189 pounds.

5.71 hits per 60 is the 68th percentile. 0.95 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.48 taken, and the net at the 85th, with nineteen penalty minutes in seventy games.

The Intangibles

1:45 short-handed a night is the 83rd percentile among forwards, and six of his seventy-three career goals have come a man short.

22.9 mph is the 80th percentile, 9.0 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 83rd, 10.06 miles per 60 the 85th. Three skating measurements in the top fifth of the league — by a distance the best tracking file of any San Jose checking forward.

He is 29 with 570 games and 175 points. The kill, the blocks, the skating and the deployment are four real things. The shot rate, the shot speed and a career-long inability to score are why nine seasons have produced seventy-three goals, and no club has yet asked him for anything else.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “1:45 short-handed a night is the 83rd percentile among forwards, and six of his seventy-three career goals have come a man short.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “2.80 blocks per 60 is the 89th percentile among forwards, at 5-11 and 189 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 868 minutes

Expected goals
47.4%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.9%
10th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 43 against. Expected: 27.5 and 30.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
35th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 70 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
87th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.17 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.0 mph
39th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 868 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SJS took 47.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.4% — level with the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 868 minutes at five-on-five — 47th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nick Bonino46.5%49.1%41.6%
Brent Burns48.9%46.5%46.4%
Andrew Cogliano39.8%51.7%45.3%

46.5% together, 49.1% for him apart and 41.6% for Bonino apart. Bonino was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Bonino than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

103 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.