Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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84

Brent Burns

Carolina Hurricanes Defense

Twenty-six minutes a night at thirty-seven — the 99th percentile — and 3.73 miles a game, the most of any skater in this book.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2003-04MIN36156-1012000342.913:29
2005-06MIN7241216-732101735.514:07
2006-07MIN7771825+16263031086.515:48
2007-08MIN82152843+12808041589.523:06
2008-09MIN5981927-7454021475.422:25
2009-10MIN4731720-15322001042.922:22
2010-11MIN80172946-109880317010.025:03
2011-12SJS81112637+8345022015.522:32
2012-13SJS30911200202008111.116:17
2013-14SJS69222648+26342032459.016:49
2014-15SJS82174360-9657022456.923:57
2015-16SJS82274875-5537143537.625:52
2016-17SJS82294776+19408063209.124:52
2017-18SJS82125567-16465023323.625:15
2018-19SJS82166783+13347163005.325:06
2019-20SJS70123345-22345012255.325:25
2020-21SJS5672229-13362011385.126:09
2021-22SJS82104454-15424002034.926:09
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1251227550777-357638024034376.622:28

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

With San Jose. 10 goals and 44 assists in all 82 games — 54 points at 26:09 a night, minus-15, with 4 power-play goals on 203 shots and 42 penalty minutes.

Twenty-six minutes and nine seconds a night is the 99th percentile among the league’s defencemen, at thirty-six years old, and 3.73 miles a game is the most of any skater this book tracks. Nobody in hockey was asked for more or covered more ground doing it.

46.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,622 minutes, the 29th percentile. His ice went 67-66 against an expectation of 60.65-68.91 — six goals of scoring above the chances and three fewer conceded than they predicted. San Jose finished 25th in the league, and 1,622 minutes of it went through him.

The Finesse Game

203 attempts at a median of 54 feet — the 91st percentile for distance — with 7 per cent from inside the slot, the 20th — off a 94.6 mph release. Ten goals at 4.9 per cent.

550 assists in 1,251 games, and 1.90 takeaways per 60 is the 96th percentile among defencemen. The puck comes back to him and it leaves going forward, and forty-four assists at thirty-six is the argument that the hands are the last thing to go.

2.71 giveaways per 60 is among the highest figures at the position, and always has been. He tries the pass and a share of the time it is intercepted at his own line.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 228, and 1.54 hits per 60 is the 7th percentile among defencemen. He has never defended with his body and he is not starting at thirty-seven. 4.20 blocks per 60 at the 52nd is ordinary.

Top speed 21.8 mph is the 25th percentile and 0.7 bursts above 20 mph a game is the 32nd — the ground covered is a function of never leaving the ice rather than of speed.

The Intangibles

Twentieth overall in 2003 by Minnesota, a Norris Trophy at thirty-two, 777 points in 1,251 games, and eleven seasons in San Jose.

He is 37, and Carolina traded for him in July with three years left on the contract. A club that allowed fewer goals than anybody in the league has just added a defenceman who does not defend, to a blue line where Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei already do — which is exactly the point: Carolina is buying the 44 assists and can afford to hide the rest.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    83.1% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:47 a game at five-on-five, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “550 assists in 1,251 games, and 1.90 takeaways per 60 is the 96th percentile among defencemen”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “1.54 hits per 60 is the 7th percentile among defencemen”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,622 minutes

Expected goals
46.8%
29th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.6%
13th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 66 against. Expected: 60.6 and 68.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
78th
Numbers
29th

The report ranks him 49 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 67 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
61st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.66 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.73 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.6 mph
66th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with SJS · 1622 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SJS took 47.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.8% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,622 minutes at five-on-five — 100th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mario Ferraro46.5%47.2%44.0%
Timo Meier54.3%42.2%54.3%
Logan Couture50.0%45.2%52.3%

46.5% together, 47.2% for him apart and 44.0% for Ferraro apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

290 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 56 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 83% from beyond forty.