Nashville Predators

Central Division, Western Conference · 23 reports in the 2024-25 edition.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2023-24 · 82 games · 212 for, 225 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.5% 9th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 52.5% 8th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.70 27th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.17 18th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -8.0 22nd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +6.4 11th of 32

Nashville Predators scored 8.0 fewer goals than their chances were worth — 8 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 30.5; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 39.9%; of skater points
From under 26: 11.1%; of skater points
Homegrown: 34.4%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 64.5%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Ninety-nine points, fifth at creating chances and twenty-second at finishing them — so the club bought eighty-two goals in two thirty-four-year-olds.

Who this names 12 of 23 on the roster · 61% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabbro, Mark Jankowski, Jeremy Lauzon, Jake Lucchini, Michael McCarron, Tommy Novak, Juuse Saros, Colton Sissons, Cole Smith, Scott Wedgewood.

What the Quant Says

47-30-5, 99 points, 11th in the league.

This is a better hockey club than eleventh. Sixth in the league at creating chances, ninth in shot share, eighth in chance share, eighth on the penalty kill — and twenty-second at finishing, which cost it eight goals at five-on-five, and sixteenth on a power play that takes the fourth-most time in hockey.

269 goals for and 248 against. The shortfall is entirely conversion, at even strength and a man up, and the response was one of the most aggressive summers in this edition.

Steven Stamkos arrives with 555 career goals and 1,082 games. Jonathan Marchessault arrives undrafted with 230 goals in 638 games, having scored 42. Brady Skjei arrives with 47 points from the blue line. Eighty-two goals and forty-seven points bought in one summer, and the average age of the three is 33.

It leaves Nashville with the fourth-oldest roster in this edition. Steven Stamkos is 34, Ryan O'Reilly 33, Luke Schenn 34, Roman Josi 34, Gustav Nyquist 35 and Jonathan Marchessault 33. Four of the likely top six forwards are 33 or older. The bet is that this group has two seasons in it, and the club has spent everything on those two seasons.

What the Scout Says

A very good possession club that could not finish, which has responded by buying two of the best finishers of the last decade at the age they stop finishing.

Filip Forsberg scored 48 goals and has 287 in 698 games. Roman Josi has 686 points in 909 games at a career 24:52 a night. Steven Stamkos has 555 goals and 1,137 points in 1,082 games. Ryan O'Reilly has 771 points in 1,073.

Two men with more than a thousand games each, a defenceman with nine hundred, and Luke Schenn four short of a thousand. Against that: Luke Evangelista is 22, Philip Tomasino is 23, Juuso Parssinen is 23 and Spencer Stastney is 24, and none of the four has taken a job from anybody yet.

Who this names 7 of 14 forwards · 62% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Mark Jankowski, Jake Lucchini, Michael McCarron, Juuso Parssinen, Colton Sissons, Cole Smith, Philip Tomasino.

What the Quant Says

269 goals, 10th in the league, on the 5th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.764 expected goals per 60. Those two agree, and both of them are better than a club with this roster had any right to expect.

At five-on-five Nashville took 51.5 per cent of the shot attempts, 9th, and 52.5 per cent of the expected goals, 8th. A genuinely good possession club, which is not what the eleventh-place finish suggests.

And it scored 168 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 176 — a shortfall of 8, 22nd in the league. Below average at finishing on the fifth-best chance creation in hockey. That gap is the reason the summer looked the way it did.

Filip Forsberg scored 48 goals and 94 points in all 82 games, sixth in the league in goals, on 347 shots at 13.8 per cent — his career rate is 13.02, so this was the player rather than the year. Roman Josi had 23 goals and 85 points from the blue line at 34. Gustav Nyquist had 75 points at 34 and Ryan O'Reilly 69.

Then the club signed Steven Stamkos, who scored 40 goals in Tampa Bay, and Jonathan Marchessault, who scored 42 in Vegas. Eighty-two goals bought in one summer, from a 34-year-old and a 33-year-old.

What the Scout Says

A forty-eight-goal scorer, two men bought to be the second and third, and a very thin bottom six.

Filip Forsberg is 6-1 and 205 and took 347 shots at a median of 32 feet, converting 13.8 per cent against a career 13.02. He and Steven Stamkos are the only forwards on this roster who beat a goaltender cleanly from distance, and the volume is why the goals come.

Ryan O'Reilly took 180 shots at a median of 18 feet with 54 per cent from inside twenty and converted 14.4 per cent — a 33-year-old centre who scores from the paint and has 11 career shorthanded goals. Gustav Nyquist took 153 shots at a median of 22 feet and had 75 points at 34, a career high in his twelfth season.

Steven Stamkos shoots at 16.66 per cent for a career across 3,332 shots, which is a remarkable rate to hold over sixteen seasons. Jonathan Marchessault is 5-9, undrafted, and converted 15.8 per cent on 266 shots. Tommy Novak took the 97th percentile of chances and converted 15.9 per cent, and Luke Evangelista took the 94th percentile at 22.

Who this names 6 of 7 defencemen · 96% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Spencer Stastney.

What the Quant Says

Nashville allowed 2.514 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 14th in the league, and conceded 248 goals, 13th. Middling at both, and consistent between them.

Roman Josi played all 82 games at 24:38 a night at 34 and had 23 goals and 62 assists for 85 points. His ice went 82-63 against an expectation of 76.62-64.31 — five goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and one fewer conceded than they called for. Eighty-five points from a defenceman at 34 is the third-best total any of them managed in this edition.

Alexandre Carrier is 5-11 and 174 pounds and played 18:48 a night on the top pair, with his ice at 46-43 against 46.93-44.87. Jeremy Lauzon took 98 penalty minutes in 79 games and Dante Fabbro was plus-9 in 56. Luke Schenn is 34, has 996 games and 807 career penalty minutes, and took 15:11 on the third pair.

Brady Skjei arrives from Carolina having scored 13 goals and 47 points, with his ice at 50-46 against an expectation of 61.07-52.55 — eleven goals of scoring that did not arrive, which on the club that finished last in the league at finishing is where you would expect to find it.

What the Scout Says

Roman Josi, a 174-pound right-hander beside him, and a great deal of size behind.

Roman Josi is 6-1 and 201 and played 24:38 a night at 34, with 505 career assists in 909 games. He skates the puck out of his own end and joins the rush as readily as he did at 25, and the 85 points say the legs have not gone. The defending has never been the reason to watch him.

Alexandre Carrier is 5-11 and 174 pounds and takes 18:48 a night against other clubs' best lines, which at that size is the most unlikely thing in this chapter. Brady Skjei is 6-3 and 210 with 609 games and arrives to take the second pair.

Jeremy Lauzon is 6-3 and 225 with 316 penalty minutes in 288 games and hits everything. Luke Schenn is 6-2 and 225, 34 years old, 996 games and 807 penalty minutes, and has been doing exactly this since 2008. Dante Fabbro is 26 and took 16:21.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 6.4 goals better than the chances it faced, 11th in the league. Above average, and almost all of it one man.

Juuse Saros went 35-24-5 with a .9062 and a 2.86 in 64 games, facing 1,845 shots, with 3 shutouts. He is 29, a fourth-round pick, 5-11 and 180 pounds, and his career line across 350 games is a .9170 with 23 shutouts. Sixty-four games is the third season in a row he has played sixty or more.

Scott Wedgewood arrives from Dallas having gone 16-7-5 with an .8993 and a 2.85 in 32 games, facing 844, against a career .9059 across 130 games. He is 32 and a career backup, which is what the job is.

Kevin Lankinen took 24 games and has gone to Vancouver; Yaroslav Askarov took 2 and has gone to San Jose. The club has traded away the goaltender it drafted eleventh overall and committed to the one it took at ninety-ninth.

What the Scout Says

One 5-11 goaltender playing sixty-four games, and the organisation has sold the prospect behind him.

Juuse Saros is 5-11 and 180 pounds and plays a deep, compact game, taking away the bottom of the net and relying on tracking rather than size. Twenty-three career shutouts in 350 games at a career .9170. The .9062 last season was the lowest of any season in which he has played twenty games, and sixty-four games at that size is a heavy load.

He is quick across the crease — that is the whole style — and the rebound control is good enough that the second chance rarely arrives. He handles the puck sparingly.

Scott Wedgewood is 6-2 and 201 with a career .9059 across 130 games and is a genuine backup rather than a threat. Yaroslav Askarov, eleventh overall in 2020, played two games and was traded to San Jose. The club has bet the next four years on a 29-year-old who is 5-11, and there is nothing behind him.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 21 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Juuse Saros and Scott Wedgewood. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2023-24.

Alexandre Carrier

D · Nashville Predators

Five foot eleven and 174 pounds, taking 18:48 a night against other clubs' best lines.

Luke Evangelista

RW · Nashville Predators

The 94th percentile of chances at 22 on thirteen and a half minutes a night, on a club that just signed two men in their thirties.

Dante Fabbro

D · Nashville Predators

Seventeenth overall in 2016, 309 games, and 2 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

Filip Forsberg

LW · Nashville Predators

Forty-eight goals on 347 shots, sixth in the league, at a career rate he has held for twelve years.

Mark Jankowski

LW · Nashville Predators

Eleven career shorthanded goals against 56 career goals, and the highest chance share in this edition.

Roman Josi

D · Nashville Predators

Eighty-five points from the blue line at 34, and 505 career assists in 909 games.

Jeremy Lauzon

D · Nashville Predators

Ninety-eight penalty minutes in 79 games, on a club that spent the ninth-most time shorthanded in hockey.

Jake Lucchini

C · Nashville Predators

Undrafted out of Trail, 51 career games at 29, and a fourth line in Minnesota.

Jonathan Marchessault

C · Nashville Predators

Undrafted, 5-9, 230 goals in 638 games, and forty-two of them last season at 33.

Michael McCarron

C · Nashville Predators

Six foot six, 232 pounds, 100 penalty minutes, and twelve goals from twelve minutes a night.

Tommy Novak

C · Nashville Predators

The 97th percentile of chances at 27, and a career 15.58 per cent that nobody expected.

Gustav Nyquist

RW · Nashville Predators

Seventy-five points at 34, a career high in his twelfth season, on 153 shots.

Ryan O'Reilly

C · Nashville Predators

One thousand and seventy-three games, 771 points, and 54 per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet at 33.

Juuso Parssinen

C · Nashville Predators

A shot median of fifteen feet at 6-3, and the worst chance share on the roster.

Juuse Saros

G · Nashville Predators

Five foot eleven, sixty-four games, and a career .9170 across 350 of them.

Luke Schenn

D · Nashville Predators

Nine hundred and ninety-six games, 807 penalty minutes, and forty-three goals in sixteen seasons.

Colton Sissons

C · Nashville Predators

Six hundred and eighteen games, seven career shorthanded goals, and three of them last season.

Brady Skjei

D · Nashville Predators

Forty-seven points from the blue line in Carolina, and eleven goals of scoring that never arrived on his ice.

Cole Smith

RW · Nashville Predators

Undrafted out of Brainerd, a shot median of sixteen feet, and 60 per cent of them from inside twenty.

Steven Stamkos

C · Nashville Predators

Five hundred and fifty-five goals, 214 of them on the power play, and a career 16.66 per cent.

Spencer Stastney

D · Nashville Predators

Twenty games, plus-9, and the fourth-best chance share on the club in a quarter of a season.

Philip Tomasino

RW · Nashville Predators

Twenty-fourth overall in 2019, 70 points in 148 games, and forty-one of them last season.

Scott Wedgewood

G · Nashville Predators

One hundred and thirty career games in six seasons, a career .9059, and a backup's job.

How they were used

2023-24 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.