This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Luke Evangelista
Nashville Predators Right Wing
The 94th percentile of chances at 22 on thirteen and a half minutes a night, on a club that just signed two men in their thirties.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | NSH | 24 | 7 | 8 | 15 | +7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 54 | 13.0 | 16:34 |
| 2023-24 | NSH | 80 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 172 | 9.3 | 13:57 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 104 | 23 | 31 | 54 | +7 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 226 | 10.2 | 14:33 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
80 games, 16 goals and 23 assists for 39 points, 3 on the power play, 18 penalty minutes, 13:57 a night and even. He took 56.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 938 minutes, the 94th percentile, and his ice went 40-35 against an expectation of 44.21-33.43.
Four goals of scoring that did not arrive and two more conceded than the chances called for. A 94th-percentile chance share at 22 on thirteen and a half minutes a night is the most encouraging thing in this chapter.
The Finesse Game
172 shots at a median of 21 feet with 46 per cent from inside 20, converted at 9.3 per cent against a career 10.18.
31 career assists in 104 games. He gets to the middle and the finishing has not arrived; sixteen goals on a hundred and seventy-two shots is a couple below what the chances were worth. The passing is already better than the shot.
The Physical Game
He is 6-0 and 183 and does not initiate contact.
18 penalty minutes in 80 games is a low rate. He forechecks by anticipation rather than by force and he does not win many walls.
The Intangibles
A second-round pick in 2020 out of Toronto, two seasons, and 54 points in 104 games, all of it for one organisation.
He is 22 and took the third-best chance share on this club at thirteen minutes a night. Nashville has spent the summer signing men in their mid-thirties, and this is the one player on the roster whose next three seasons will be better than his last.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
80 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
- sheltered· is started in the attacking end
66% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 98th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
“The passing is already better than the shot.”
“He is 6-0 and 183 and does not initiate contact.”
“He forechecks by anticipation rather than by force and he does not win many walls.”
“He forechecks by anticipation rather than by force and he does not win many walls.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 938 minutes
- Expected goals
- 56.9%
- 94th pct
- Shot attempts
- 54.9%
- 89th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 35 against. Expected: 44.2 and 33.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 32 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games
- Top speed
- 21.8 mph
- 32nd pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.59 a game
- Distance
- 2.20 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 87.5 mph
- 55th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 938 minutes at five-on-five
- Thomas Novak64%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- NSH took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.9% — 4.4 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 938 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Novak | 59.9% | 51.8% | 56.2% |
| Roman Josi | 57.1% | 56.8% | 53.6% |
| Ryan McDonagh | 62.5% | 54.5% | 53.3% |
59.9% together, 51.8% for him apart and 56.2% for Novak apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
213 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.