Nashville Predators

Central Division, Western Conference · 24 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 212 for, 225 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 47.4% 24th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 47.0% 24th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.70 27th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.17 18th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -12.4 27th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +25.3 3rd of 32

Nashville Predators scored 12.4 fewer goals than their chances were worth but got 25.3 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — the two pull against each other, and both regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.4; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 12.8%; of skater points
From under 26: 32.6%; of skater points
Homegrown: 43.3%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 64.5%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Twenty-seventh in the league at suppressing chances and twelfth in goals against — Juuse Saros faced 2,099 shots, more than any goaltender in hockey, and the club finished ninety-two points.

Who this names 10 of 24 on the roster · 43% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Tyson Barrie, Alexandre Carrier, Luke Evangelista, Dante Fabbro, Cody Glass, Kevin Lankinen, Jeremy Lauzon, Michael McCarron, Tommy Novak, Juuso Parssinen, Colton Sissons, Cole Smith, Philip Tomasino, Yakov Trenin.

What the Quant Says

42-32-8, 92 points, 17th in the league and fifth in the Central.

229 goals for, 27th. 238 against, 12th. Twenty-second at creating chances at even strength, 27th at suppressing them, 26th on the power play and 26th on the penalty kill — and 12th in goals against.

At five-on-five: 146 goals scored against 158.4 expected, and 153 conceded against 178.3. The finishing was 27th at minus-12.4 and the goaltending 3rd at plus-25.3. Twelve goals thrown away by the skaters and twenty-five saved in the crease.

Juuse Saros faced 2,099 shots, the most of any goaltender in the league, and was the only one above two thousand. Nothing else on this page holds it together.

Roman Josi covered 3.49 miles a game at the eleventh-slowest measured top speed in the league. Filip Forsberg played 50 games.

Ryan O'Reilly, Ryan McDonagh, Luke Schenn, Gustav Nyquist, Denis Gurianov, Mark Jankowski and Kiefer Sherwood all arrive. Mattias Ekholm, Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Johansen and Tanner Jeannot do not.

Six regulars out and seven in, and the average age of the arrivals is higher than the average age of the departures. This is a club that finished twenty-seventh at both making and preventing chances, and has answered it with veterans.

What the Scout Says

Two thousand and ninety-nine shots faced, from the shortest man in this book.

Juuse Saros faced more shots than any goaltender in the league and was the only one above two thousand, stopping 91.85 per cent of them. Nashville allowed chances at the 27th-best rate in the league and conceded the 12th-fewest goals. Roman Josi played 25:10 a night at the eleventh-slowest measured top speed in hockey.

This is a club held up by one position. The blue line is old and slow, the forward group finished twenty-second at making chances, and the summer's answer was seven arrivals with an average age north of thirty.

Who this names 9 of 15 forwards · 65% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Mark Jankowski, Michael McCarron, Kiefer Sherwood, Cole Smith, Philip Tomasino, Yakov Trenin.

What the Quant Says

229 goals, 27th in the league.

Nashville created 2.526 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 22nd, and took 47.4 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 24th, and 47.0 per cent of the expected goals, 24th.

At five-on-five it scored 146 goals against an expectation of 158.4 — a shortfall of 12.4, 27th in the league. Twenty-second at making chances and twenty-seventh at converting them.

Roman Josi had 18 goals and 59 points in 67 games at 25:10 a night. Tyson Barrie had 13 and 55 across 85 games between Edmonton and Nashville, Filip Forsberg 19 and 42 in 50 games, Tommy Novak 17 and 43 in 51 at 25, Cody Glass 14 and 35 and Colton Sissons 12 and 30 from the hardest forward assignment on the club.

Ryan O'Reilly arrives with 16 goals and 30 points in 53 games, Gustav Nyquist with 11 and 27 in 51 and Denis Gurianov with 7 goals off a 100.0 mph shot.

What the Scout Says

Forty-three points in fifty-one games from a twenty-five-year-old, on the club that finished twenty-seventh in goals.

Filip Forsberg is 6-1 and 205 with 239 goals and 511 points in a Nashville shirt across eleven seasons. He scored 42 goals two years ago and 19 in 50 games in this one; the availability is the file.

Tommy Novak had 43 points in 51 games at 25 from the 96th percentile in zone starts, which is the caveat attached to the whole line. Cody Glass was sixth overall in 2017 and held the best chance share of any Nashville forward.

Colton Sissons took 188 attacking-zone draws against 363 defensive ones — the 6th percentile in the league — and had 30 points and 20 penalty minutes in 82 games. This is the least glamorous good player in the chapter.

Ryan O'Reilly arrives at 6-1 with 991 games, 702 points and a Conn Smythe, having taken 53 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. Denis Gurianov arrives with 4.6 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 99th percentile, and a 100.0 mph shot — everything measurable about the tools is in the top decile of the league, and two organisations have failed to attach them to a hockey player.

Luke Evangelista took 110 attacking-zone draws against 48 at 21 and Juuso Parssinen had 25 points in 45 games as a seventh-round pick.

Who this names 6 of 7 defencemen · 83% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Tyson Barrie.

What the Quant Says

Nashville allowed 2.865 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 27th in the league, and conceded 238 goals, 12th. Twenty-seventh at preventing chances and twelfth in goals against. The gap is one goaltender.

At five-on-five it conceded 153 goals against an expectation of 178.3, and the club's goaltending came in 25.3 goals better than the chances it faced, 3rd in the league.

Roman Josi played 67 games at 25:10 and covered 3.49 miles a game, the 97th percentile — at a 20.8 mph top speed, the eleventh-slowest measured reading in the league. He took 162 shots from beyond 40 feet and scored 11.

Ryan McDonagh played 71 games at 21:32 and finished plus-12 with 854 career games and two Stanley Cups. Dante Fabbro played 79 at 17:27 at the 5th percentile in top speed and the 2nd in bursts, and took 101 shots on goal for 2 goals.

Luke Schenn arrives with the third-slowest measured top speed in the league and 88 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet. Alexandre Carrier is 174 pounds and played 18 minutes a night at the 4th percentile in top speed. Mattias Ekholm has gone to Edmonton.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-five minutes a night at the eleventh-slowest top speed in the league, and three more arrivals slower still.

Roman Josi is 6-1 and 201, 38th overall in 2008 out of Bern, a Norris winner and the captain since 2017. He covers 3.49 miles a game, the 97th percentile, at 20.8 mph, the 2nd. The 49.7 per cent chance share from an 89th-percentile zone start is the case against the reputation, and both halves are in the record.

Ryan McDonagh is 6-1 and 216 with 854 games, two Stanley Cups and a career plus-227 — the largest such figure in this chapter. He is 34 and Nashville took the contract to get a defensive defenceman it did not otherwise have.

Luke Schenn arrives at 6-2 and 225 with 933 games, 764 penalty minutes and two Stanley Cups, and is the third-slowest measured skater in the league with 88 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet.

Dante Fabbro was seventeenth overall in 2016 and is a third-pair defenceman at 25 — the 5th percentile in top speed and the 2nd in bursts is not a profile that survives against a modern forecheck. Alexandre Carrier is 5-11 and 174 pounds at 18 minutes a night. Jeremy Lauzon took 66 penalty minutes in 67 games.

Who this names 9 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

26th in the league at 7.588 expected goals against per 60, over 5:42 a night — the fifth-most shorthanded time of any club. A great deal of ice at a poor rate.

Mark Jankowski scored 3 shorthanded goals, Yakov Trenin 2, Gustav Nyquist 2 elsewhere, Ryan O'Reilly 1 elsewhere and Colton Sissons 1.

Ryan O'Reilly arrives with 11 career shorthanded goals in 991 games, the most on the roster, and Mark Jankowski has 10 in 322 — by rate the largest figure here by a distance. Gustav Nyquist arrives with 7 in 703, Filip Forsberg has 6 in 616 and Colton Sissons 4 in 537.

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.