Nashville Predators

Central Division, Western Conference · 24 reports in the 2025-26 edition.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2024-25 · 82 games · 212 for, 225 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.0% 9th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 49.2% 18th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.70 27th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.17 18th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -28.2 32nd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -20.1 28th of 32

Nashville Predators scored 28.2 fewer goals than their chances were worth and got 20.1 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 48 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 30.4; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 40.3%; of skater points
From under 26: 15.5%; of skater points
Homegrown: 20.1%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 64.5%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

9th in shot-attempt share, 8th on the penalty kill, and third-worst in the league — a club that was last at finishing and 28th in goaltending in the same season.

Who this names 9 of 24 on the roster · 49% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Justus Annunen, Justin Barron, Nick Blankenburg, Michael Bunting, Andreas Englund, Luke Evangelista, Filip Forsberg, Zachary L'Heureux, Michael McCarron, Jordan Oesterle, Juuse Saros, Cole Smith, Spencer Stastney, Fedor Svechkov, Adam Wilsby.

What the Quant Says

68 points and the third-worst record in the league, from a club that was 9th in shot-attempt share, 9th on the power play and 11th on the penalty kill.

This is the widest gap between process and result in this edition and it is not close. The club finished last in the league at finishing, 28.2 goals below expectation, and 28th in goaltending, 20.1 goals worse than the chances faced. That is forty-eight goals of execution missing across two phases, on a team creating and conceding chances at roughly a league-average rate.

The summer of 2024 bought Stamkos, Marchessault and Skjei. The summer of 2025 bought Nicolas Hague, Nick Perbix, Erik Haula and Tyson Jost — three defencemen and a checking centre, after a season in which the shot share was 9th and the goaltending was 28th.

What is not in dispute: Forsberg at 76 points, Josi with the best blue-line chance share on the club at 35, O'Reilly at 53 points on 24 penalty minutes, and a penalty kill that finished 8th in the league. What is: two goaltenders who were both worse than the chances they faced, a 35-year-old with three years left who scored thirteen even-strength goals, and 102 penalty minutes from a fourth-line centre on a club near the top of the league in shorthanded time.

What the Scout Says

A club that was not far from good, finished third-worst, and lost the difference entirely in execution.

Filip Forsberg's release is the best on the roster and among the better ones in the league, and he is the rare shooter who will take it from the circle and also go to the net — 27 per cent of his attempts came from inside 20 feet. Roman Josi still skates like a Norris winner at 35, gains the line under control, and runs a breakout by himself; he played 53 games. Ryan O'Reilly has removed distance from his game entirely and lives in the paint, and takes 24 penalty minutes a year doing it.

The three men signed in July 2024 all had the worst or nearly the worst seasons of their careers in the same year, which is a coincidence in the strict sense and an expensive one in every other. Steven Stamkos's one-timer is intact and everything that used to get him to the circle is not. Jonathan Marchessault is 34 and 185 pounds and survives by being difficult to catch. Brady Skjei is 6-3, plays 22 minutes, and took 72 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet.

Who this names 9 of 12 forwards · 81% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Erik Haula, Tyson Jost, Cole Smith.

What the Quant Says

214 goals — the second-fewest in the league — and 19th in creating chances at even strength at 2.47 expected goals per 60, which is an ordinary figure rather than a bad one and nowhere near the bottom.

Filip Forsberg had 76 points on 281 shots, twenty points and 41 attempts clear of anybody else here. Steven Stamkos scored 27 in his first season out of Tampa and 14 of them came on the power play. Jonathan Marchessault had 56 points a year after scoring 42 goals in Vegas, and Ryan O'Reilly 53 with 57 per cent of his shots taken from inside 20 feet at 34.

Finishing was 32nd — last in the league, 28.2 goals below expectation, the largest such deficit in this edition. At five-on-five the club scored 121 goals against an expected 149.2. Forsberg's line was outscored 49-54 on chances of 48.8-51.4, and Stamkos's scored 22 against an expected 41.5. Those two lines account for forty of the missing goals.

What the Scout Says

One genuine star, three expensive veterans past their best, and a young winger nobody is playing.

Forsberg handles the puck at pace and beats a defenceman going wide, and 281 shots is a volume nobody else here approaches. Stamkos's release from the left circle remains among the two or three most dangerous shots in hockey, and it is now a special-teams weapon rather than an every-shift one. Marchessault shoots out of a low compact stance and changes the angle rather than beating a man outright. O'Reilly is the professional: elite on draws, patient below the goal line, and 57 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at 34.

Luke Evangelista posted the best chance share of any forward on the roster and played 13:52 a night, which is the most obvious unexploited thing on this club.

Underneath: Michael Bunting arrives at the blue paint before the defenceman and weighs 186 pounds. Zachary L'Heureux hits everything and took 63 penalty minutes at 22. Fedor Svechkov is a third-line centre who takes 14 penalty minutes a year. Michael McCarron is 6-6 and 232 and among the most physically imposing forwards in the league.

Who this names 7 of 10 defencemen · 84% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Andreas Englund, Jordan Oesterle, Spencer Stastney.

What the Quant Says

274 goals against and 22nd in even-strength expected goals against at 2.60 per 60, underneath a 9th-ranked shot-attempt share. They had the puck more than most clubs and did not defend especially well with it.

Roman Josi posted the best chance share on the blue line at 51.1 per cent while playing 25:02 a night, and was shut down in March after 53 games. Below him: Brady Skjei at 21:53 and the 23rd percentile in the first year of a seven-year contract, Justin Barron at 17:26 at 23, and Nick Blankenburg — 5-9, 177 pounds, undrafted — at 19:33.

Adam Wilsby, a fifth-round pick playing his first 23 NHL games, had the best chance share of any defenceman on the roster at 52.1 per cent. It is a small sample, and it is the second time in this edition that a club's best blue-line number belonged to a man nobody planned on.

What the Scout Says

One excellent defenceman at 35 who played 53 games, and a great deal of improvisation behind him.

Roman Josi defends by anticipation and stick position and does not clear a crease by force; at 201 pounds he never has. Brady Skjei closes a rush with reach rather than by stepping up, which concedes the blue line to a skilled winger, and the second and third effort in his own zone is where a 23rd-percentile chance share comes from.

Nick Blankenburg is 5-9 and 177 pounds — the smallest defenceman in this edition — and he played 19:33 a night. He escapes pressure by turning into it, cannot clear a crease under any circumstances, and 24 penalty minutes says he is almost never reaching. Justin Barron skates well and his point shot does not get through traffic. Adam Wilsby had the best chance share on the club across 23 games at 25.

Nicolas Hague is 6-6 and 245, among the largest men in this edition, acquired from Vegas to own a crease nobody on last year's roster could. Nick Perbix is 6-4, right-handed, and took 20 penalty minutes in 74 games in Tampa — and is about to be asked to play top-four minutes for the first time in his career.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

Juuse Saros went 20-31-6 with a .8951 across 58 games, facing 1,592 shots. The club's goaltending came in 20.1 goals worse than the chances faced, 28th in the league.

That is the worst season of his career by a distance, and it arrived in the first year of an eight-year extension. He had been at .918 or better in four of the previous five seasons, behind defences no better than this one.

Justus Annunen, acquired from Colorado in December for Scott Wedgewood, stopped .8833 across 34 games between the two clubs. Both goaltenders finished worse than the chances they faced, in the same season, and neither has an obvious explanation attached.