Nashville Predators

What the Quant Says

266 goals, 12th in the league, off the 26th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.413 per 60). Only five clubs generated less and only eleven scored more.

Four Predators finished in the top twenty-two of the 393 qualified forwards for shooting percentage — Ryan Johansen 5th at 22.0, Tanner Jeannot 14th at 19.4, Matt Duchene 19th at 18.9, Filip Forsberg 22nd at 18.6. No club in the league had more than three.

Duchene scored 43 and Forsberg 42. Duchene had never scored more than 30 in twelve previous seasons; Forsberg had never scored more than 33 in nine.

Roman Josi's 96 points is the most by any defenceman in the league.

What the Scout Says

Roman Josi produced the most points, the most assists and the most shots of any defenceman in the league, and the highest even-strength point rate of the 202 who qualified. 96 points, 73 assists, 281 shots, 2.06 per 60. It is also the softest chair on the club: 60.2 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end, the 50th-highest of 652 skaters.

Matt Duchene shot 18.9 per cent against a career rate of 13.2 across 2,229 shots, and did it on normal volume. The forty-three goals are one number moving, not a game changing.

Filip Forsberg's 0.609 goals a game is the 5th-best of the 611 skaters who played forty, and he has never played eighty games in a season.

Mikael Granlund covered less ground than any of the 365 forwards the tracking measures — 8.37 miles per 60 — while playing the 16th-most minutes of the 393. Nobody in the league played that much and moved that little.

Ryan Johansen shot 22.0 per cent on the 65th-lowest shot rate of 393 forwards and posted the worst chance share of any Predator regular.

What the Quant Says

252 goals against, 16th in the league, off the 6th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.449 per 60). The structure is genuinely good and the record is only ordinary.

The gap is the penalty kill and the crease. Nashville spent 5:55 a game short-handed — more than any club in the league — at the 22nd-ranked rate, and its goaltending came out at minus-4.1.

Roman Josi played 25:33, Mattias Ekholm 23:29 and Alexandre Carrier 20:59. Josi's ice went 84-64 against an expectation of 67.88-64.41; Carrier's went 54-32 against 45.69-49.27. Both of those are finishing, not defending.

Mark Borowiecki and Jeremy Lauzon are the third pair, and between them they took 232 penalty minutes in 123 games.

What the Scout Says

Dante Fabbro recorded the slowest top speed of all 557 skaters the tracking covers — 20.3 mph — and the 3rd-fewest sprints. He also took the best pair of shares on the Nashville blue line and played 1,787 attempts beside Josi, a pair better than either man alone. Either the measurement does not matter at his position or it has not started to yet.

Alexandre Carrier is 5-11 and 174 pounds, the 4th-lightest defenceman in this book, and took twenty per cent of his shots from the slot at a 46-foot median — the 94th percentile for the first and the 18th-shortest of 202 for the second. A man that size choosing to go inside is the most interesting thing on this blue line.

Mattias Ekholm is 6-5 and 225 and hit at the 28th percentile and blocked at the 18th, while taking more short-handed ice than any defenceman in the league.

Mark Borowiecki led all 202 qualified defencemen in hits, in penalties taken and in penalties drawn, and finished with no goals on forty-five shots. Jeremy Lauzon was 6th in hits and 6th-lowest in even-strength points.

What the Quant Says

18th in the league at minus-4.1 goals saved below expectation — very close to nothing, on a club whose skaters suppressed chances at the 6th-best rate.

Juuse Saros played 67 games, more than any goaltender in the league, and faced 2,107 shots, more than all but Connor Hellebuyck. His .9179 is 8th of the 53 who played twenty-five games.

The six seasons behind it read .9235, .9247, .9149, .9142, .9273, .9179. A 131-point band across 6,639 career shots. There is no trend in that record at all, which is rarer than a good one.

David Rittich and Connor Ingram took the other twenty games and both have gone. Kevin Lankinen arrives from Chicago with a .8911 that ranked 51st of the 53.

What the Scout Says

Juuse Saros is 5-11 and 180 pounds. Three goaltenders in this book are that short and three weigh less. He played more games than any goaltender in the league and faced more shots than all but one.

The record is the flattest in the book: .9235, .9247, .9149, .9142, .9273, .9179. Six seasons, 6,639 shots, a 131-point band. A goaltender with no trend is worth more than one with a good year, and this is the strongest evidence in the chapter that 97 points was not entirely borrowed.

The club rated 6th in expected goals against per 60 and 18th in goaltending. Those two do not sit comfortably together, and the twenty games David Rittich and Connor Ingram took are part of the answer. Both have gone.

Kevin Lankinen arrives with a .8911 that finished 51st of the 53 who played twenty-five games, behind the league's worst chance-creating club. Two seasons and 2,177 shots is not enough to know which of .9095 and .8911 is the man, and Nashville is not going to find out at fifteen games a year.

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at 6.363 expected goals per 60, over 4:56 a night.

Five forwards and a defenceman took better than three minutes of it each: Roman Josi 3:23, Matt Duchene 3:10, Filip Forsberg 3:09, Mikael Granlund 3:08, Ryan Johansen 3:02.

Granlund took 44 per cent of his points here, Josi 39, Johansen 38, Duchene 34, Forsberg 32. That is an enormous share of the club's scoring routed through the 19th-best unit in hockey.

Nothing about the personnel explains 19th — a 96-point defenceman, two 40-goal forwards and a 64-point passer is a first unit most clubs would take.

What the Scout Says

Nineteenth, with a 96-point defenceman running it, is the hardest thing in this chapter to explain.

Roman Josi took 3:23 a night at the 96th percentile among defencemen and 39 per cent of his points there. Mikael Granlund took 44 per cent of his points on it — the 97th percentile — from a man with the 13th-lowest shot rate of 393 forwards.

Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen each took better than three minutes and between 32 and 38 per cent of their points on it. Five men, all above three minutes, none of them a specialist.

Eeli Tolvanen and Philip Tomasino are the second unit at 1:48 and 1:20, with 26 and 28 per cent of their points there.

The personnel is not the problem and the report cannot say what is.

What the Quant Says

Nashville took 5:55 a game short-handed, more than any club in the league, and killed at 6.997 expected goals against per 60, which is 22nd.

The most short-handed forward in hockey and the most short-handed defenceman both play here. Colton Sissons took 2:55 a night, the most of the 393 qualified forwards; Mattias Ekholm 3:16, the most of the 202 qualified defencemen. Tanner Jeannot was 4th among forwards at 2:33 and Alexandre Carrier 13th among defencemen at 2:52.

Ryan McDonagh arrives from Tampa Bay having taken 3:15 a night, the 2nd-most of the 202. The two most-used penalty-killing defencemen in the league are now on the same blue line.

The reason there is so much of it to do is on the roster too. Mark Borowiecki took more penalties per hour than any defenceman in the league and finished with the most penalty minutes of any skater in it.

What the Scout Says

Colton Sissons took more short-handed ice per game than any of the 393 qualified forwards in the league — 2:55 — while taking the 11th-lowest shot rate and the 25th-lowest takeaway rate among them. That is a specialist, and the twenty-eight points are the whole of the bill.

Mattias Ekholm took 3:16, the most of the 202 qualified defencemen. Ryan McDonagh, arriving, took 3:15 — the 2nd-most. Alexandre Carrier was 13th at 2:52 and Tanner Jeannot 4th among forwards at 2:33.

Four of the league's most heavily used penalty killers, and a kill that finished 22nd. The workload is the reason: 5:55 a game is the most in the league, and no structure holds up at that volume.

Yakov Trenin and Michael McCarron are the other half of the checking group. Trenin started 34.7 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, McCarron 33.8 — the 41st and 33rd-lowest of 652 skaters — and both came out close to level, which is the whole job.