Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

5

Jeremy Lauzon

Nashville Predators Defense

Ninety-eight penalty minutes in 79 games, on a club that spent the ninth-most time shorthanded in hockey.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19BOS16101-12001119.115:32
2019-20BOS19112+529000205.015:25
2020-21BOS41178+840000482.118:43
2021-22SEA/NSH66257-681000752.717:41
2022-23NSH673912-1166000773.916:51
2023-24NSH796814-3980001035.818:37
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—288143044-83160013344.217:37

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 6 goals and 8 assists for 14 points, 98 penalty minutes, 18:37 a night and minus-3. He took 50.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,251 minutes, the 53rd percentile, and his ice went 44-56 against an expectation of 50.17-49.98.

Six goals of scoring that did not arrive and six more conceded than the chances called for — both ends going wrong at once on an even chance share, which is where the minus-3 comes from and none of it is structural.

The Finesse Game

103 shots at a median of 50 feet with 71 per cent from beyond 40, converted at 5.8 per cent against a career 4.19.

30 career assists in 288 games. Six goals is a career high by three and there is nothing else to say about the offence. He gets the puck off the wall and out, and he does not carry it.

The Physical Game

He hits everything at 6-3 and 225, and 316 career penalty minutes in 288 games is what that produces.

He will fight anybody, clears the crease, and takes liberties on men who have already been beaten. Ninety-eight minutes in seventy-nine games on a club that spends the ninth-most time shorthanded in hockey is a real charge against the value.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2015 out of Val-d’Or, six seasons across three organisations, and 44 points in 288 games.

He is 27 and plays eighteen and a half minutes on the top pair of a club that finished eleventh. That is more than a player of this description usually gets, and the chance share says it was earned.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    37% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 5th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He hits everything at 6-3 and 225, and 316 career penalty minutes in 288 games is what that produces.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He will fight anybody, clears the crease, and takes liberties on men who have already been beaten.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He will fight anybody, clears the crease, and takes liberties on men who have already been beaten.”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He will fight anybody, clears the crease, and takes liberties on men who have already been beaten.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He gets the puck off the wall and out, and he does not carry it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,251 minutes

Expected goals
50.1%
54th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.1%
56th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 56 against. Expected: 50.2 and 50.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
54th

The numbers rank him 30 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 79 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
72nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.86 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.53 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
101.8 mph
99th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1251 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NSH took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.1% — 2.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,251 minutes at five-on-five — 86th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexandre Carrier49.5%51.0%54.2%
Filip Forsberg48.1%51.0%56.8%
Gustav Nyquist49.0%50.6%53.8%

49.5% together, 51.0% for him apart and 54.2% for Carrier apart. Carrier was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

150 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 38 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.