Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

Kiefer Sherwood

Vancouver Canucks Left Wing

Undrafted, and 27 points in his sixth season after 31 in his first five.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ANA506612+180016010.011:22
2019-20ANA10011-16000170.013:20
2020-21COL16033+20000180.08:48
2021-22COL11112+30001911.18:34
2022-23NSH327613+4301005712.313:36
2023-24NSH68101727+17410021109.112:10
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—187243458+26851042718.911:46

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

68 games with Nashville, 10 goals and 17 assists for 27 points, 41 penalty minutes, 12:10 a night and plus-17, with 2 game-winners. He took 52.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 786 minutes, the 71st percentile, and his ice went 36-20 against an expectation of 31.74-28.67.

Four goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and nine goals of goaltending above them. Twenty-seven points is a career high by fourteen and thirty-six goals for against twenty in 786 minutes is the ice of a man who was finally given some.

The Finesse Game

162 attempts at a median of 34 feet with 29 per cent of them from inside twenty and 33 per cent from beyond forty, 107 of those on goal, converted at 9.1 per cent against a career 8.86 across 271 shots.

Twenty-four career goals and 34 assists in 187 games. A thirty-four-foot median attempt with a third of them from beyond forty is a winger shooting from wherever the forecheck leaves him; the volume is the point and the accuracy is ordinary.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 194 and took 41 penalty minutes.

Eighty-five career penalty minutes in 187 games. He forechecks hard and finishes every check available; forty-one penalty minutes in twelve minutes a night is the rate of a fourth-liner who has to be that to stay in the lineup.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, six seasons, and Vancouver will be his fourth organisation.

A career plus-26 in 187 games from a man nobody drafted. He had 31 points in his first five seasons put together and 27 in his sixth, and he is 29.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    33.3% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks hard and finishes every check available; forty-one penalty minutes in twelve minutes a night is the rate of a fourth-liner who has to be that to stay in the lineup.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “A career plus-26 in 187 games from a man nobody drafted.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 786 minutes

Expected goals
52.5%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.6%
76th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 20 against. Expected: 31.7 and 28.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
72nd

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 68 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
89th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.12 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.01 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.3 mph
85th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with NSH · 786 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NSH took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.5% — level with the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 786 minutes at five-on-five — 37th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Michael McCarron51.8%53.2%50.1%
Cole Smith56.0%50.4%48.0%
Roman Josi56.0%50.4%54.0%

51.8% together, 53.2% for him apart and 50.1% for McCarron apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

162 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 29% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 33% from beyond forty.