Rafael Harvey-Pinard
Montreal Canadiens Left Wing
A shot median of seventeen and a half feet at 5-9, and two goals in forty-five games.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | MTL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16.7 | 13:05 |
| 2022-23 | MTL | 34 | 14 | 6 | 20 | +7 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 24.1 | 17:14 |
| 2023-24 | MTL | 45 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 7.7 | 12:38 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 83 | 17 | 14 | 31 | +3 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 18.9 | 14:32 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
45 games, 2 goals and 8 assists for 10 points, 6 penalty minutes, 12:38 a night and minus-2. He took 43.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 468 minutes, the 14th percentile, and his ice went 15-14 against an expectation of 14.52-18.62.
Level at one end and five fewer conceded than the chances called for at the other. Two goals in forty-five games after fourteen in thirty-four the season before, which is what a 19 per cent shooter regressing looks like.
The Finesse Game
46 attempts at a median of 17 feet with 57 per cent from inside 20, converted at 7.7 per cent against a career 18.89.
14 career assists in 83 games. He shoots from closer in than almost anybody on the roster and takes very few of them — forty-six attempts in forty-five games is a fourth-line volume. The career 18.89 per cent is thirty-four games of noise and last season was the correction.
The Physical Game
He is 5-9 and 179 and forechecks harder than his size suggests he should.
6 penalty minutes in 45 games is a very low rate. He wins the wall against men who outweigh him and gets to the front of the net, and he does not retaliate when he is put down for it.
The Intangibles
A seventh-round pick in 2019 out of Saguenay, three seasons, and 31 points in 83 games, all of it for one organisation.
He is 25 and the fourteen-goal run in 2022-23 bought him two more years. On a club this young there are three or four wingers in front of him and none of the ice is guaranteed.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 468 minutes
- Expected goals
- 43.8%
- 14th pct
- Shot attempts
- 43.8%
- 12th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 15 for, 14 against. Expected: 14.5 and 18.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 34 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 468 minutes at five-on-five
- Jake Evans32%
- Nick Suzuki19%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- MTL took 46.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.8% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- 468 minutes at five-on-five — 16th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans | 48.9% | 40.7% | 44.4% |
| Mike Matheson | 31.1% | 49.6% | 45.7% |
| Jordan Harris | 46.3% | 42.8% | 47.8% |
48.9% together, 40.7% for him apart and 44.4% for Evans apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
46 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 57% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.