Rafael Harvey-Pinard

A shot median of seventeen and a half feet at 5-9, and two goals in forty-five games.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2021-22	MTL	4	1	0	1	-2	0	0	0	0	6	16.7	13:05
2022-23	MTL	34	14	6	20	+7	10	4	1	1	58	24.1	17:14
2023-24	MTL	45	2	8	10	-2	6	0	0	0	26	7.7	12:38
2024-25 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	83	17	14	31	+3	16	4	1	1	90	18.9	14:32

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

45 games, 2 goals and 8 assists for 10 points, 6 penalty minutes, 12:38 a night and minus-2. He took 43.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 468 minutes, the 14th percentile, and his ice went 15-14 against an expectation of 14.52-18.62.

Level at one end and five fewer conceded than the chances called for at the other. Two goals in forty-five games after fourteen in thirty-four the season before, which is what a 19 per cent shooter regressing looks like.

The Finesse Game

46 attempts at a median of 17 feet with 57 per cent from inside 20, converted at 7.7 per cent against a career 18.89.

14 career assists in 83 games. He shoots from closer in than almost anybody on the roster and takes very few of them — forty-six attempts in forty-five games is a fourth-line volume. The career 18.89 per cent is thirty-four games of noise and last season was the correction.

The Physical Game

He is 5-9 and 179 and forechecks harder than his size suggests he should.

6 penalty minutes in 45 games is a very low rate. He wins the wall against men who outweigh him and gets to the front of the net, and he does not retaliate when he is put down for it.

The Intangibles

A seventh-round pick in 2019 out of Saguenay, three seasons, and 31 points in 83 games, all of it for one organisation.

He is 25 and the fourteen-goal run in 2022-23 bought him two more years. On a club this young there are three or four wingers in front of him and none of the ice is guaranteed.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

disciplined· stays out of the box
0.13 penalty minutes a game over 45, 6th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it
hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best
38% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 9th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck
“He is 5-9 and 179 and forechecks harder than his size suggests he should.”
wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line
“He wins the wall against men who outweigh him and gets to the front of the net, and he does not retaliate when he is put down for it.”
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“He wins the wall against men who outweigh him and gets to the front of the net, and he does not retaliate when he is put down for it.”
retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty
“He wins the wall against men who outweigh him and gets to the front of the net, and he does not retaliate when he is put down for it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 468 minutes

Expected goals: 43.8%; 14th pct
Shot attempts: 43.8%; 12th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 15 for, 14 against. Expected: 14.5 and 18.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

31st

Numbers

14th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 45 games

Top speed: 21.4 mph; 17th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.58 a game
Distance: 1.93 miles a game
Hardest shot: 94.7 mph; 90th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 468 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club: MTL took 46.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.8% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role: 468 minutes at five-on-five — 16th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Jake Evans	48.9%	40.7%	44.4%
Mike Matheson	31.1%	49.6%	45.7%
Jordan Harris	46.3%	42.8%	47.8%

48.9% together, 40.7% for him apart and 44.4% for Evans apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

46 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 57% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.