Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Jake Evans

Montreal Canadiens Center

Two hundred and seventh overall in 2014, and 65 assists in 268 games from a checking centre.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20MTL13213+100001414.310:21
2020-21MTL4731013+229010555.511:50
2021-22MTL72131629-52200012410.515:36
2022-23MTL5421719-528100553.614:29
2023-24MTL8272128-124011818.616:01
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—268276592-81031213298.214:35

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 7 goals and 21 assists for 28 points, 1 shorthanded, 24 penalty minutes, 16:01 a night and minus-1. He took 45.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,026 minutes, the 22nd percentile, and his ice went 34-41 against an expectation of 37.67-45.92.

Four goals of scoring that did not arrive and five fewer conceded than the chances called for. A minus-1 out of the 22nd percentile of chances on a club that finished 28th is a good season in disguise.

The Finesse Game

120 attempts at a median of 23 feet with 47 per cent from inside 20, converted at 8.6 per cent against a career 8.21.

65 career assists in 268 games. He is a passer on a checking line, which is an unusual and useful combination — twenty-one assists from that assignment is more than it looks. The shot has never been there and never will be.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 190 and defends by taking away the pass rather than the man.

24 penalty minutes in 82 games at sixteen a night is a low rate. He takes the defensive-zone draw, blocks shots, and kills penalties with 2 career shorthanded goals.

The Intangibles

A seventh-round pick in 2014 out of Toronto, four years at Notre Dame, five seasons, and 92 points in 268 games, all of it for one organisation.

He is 28 and has become exactly the player a 207th-overall pick is supposed to fail to become. On a club with the fifth-most shorthanded time in hockey he is the most useful checking forward available.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    34% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 4th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He is 6-0 and 190 and defends by taking away the pass rather than the man.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He takes the defensive-zone draw, blocks shots, and kills penalties with 2 career shorthanded goals.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He takes the defensive-zone draw, blocks shots, and kills penalties with 2 career shorthanded goals.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He takes the defensive-zone draw, blocks shots, and kills penalties with 2 career shorthanded goals.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is a passer on a checking line, which is an unusual and useful combination — twenty-one assists from that assignment is more than it looks.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,026 minutes

Expected goals
45.1%
22nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.9%
12th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 41 against. Expected: 37.7 and 45.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
35th
Numbers
22nd

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
51st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.37 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.54 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
83.6 mph
30th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1026 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
MTL took 46.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.1% — 1.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,026 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Josh Anderson46.3%43.6%39.6%
Brendan Gallagher53.1%40.5%48.7%
David Savard38.6%48.6%48.2%

46.3% together, 43.6% for him apart and 39.6% for Anderson apart. Anderson was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Anderson than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

120 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.