Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

14

Nick Suzuki

Montreal Canadiens Center

Two hundred and eighty-six points in 373 games, the captaincy at 25, and a career minus-76 that is not his.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20MTL71132841-1566011389.415:59
2020-21MTL56152641-52651111013.618:11
2021-22MTL82214061-293081418611.320:31
2022-23MTL82264066-133373216216.121:06
2023-24MTL82334477-1436120118517.821:16
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—373108178286-76131385978113.819:36

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 33 goals and 44 assists for 77 points, 12 on the power play, 36 penalty minutes, 21:16 a night and minus-14. He took 49.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,265 minutes, the 52nd percentile, and his ice went 59-51 against an expectation of 56.43-56.61.

Three goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and six fewer conceded than they called for. An even chance share on the hardest centre assignment on a club that was 29th in shot share is the most impressive thing on this page.

The Finesse Game

275 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 40 per cent from inside 20, 185 of them on goal, converted at 17.8 per cent against a career 13.83.

178 career assists in 373 games. Thirty-three goals is a career high by seven and the conversion rate says some of it will come back. He is a passer first and the shot has arrived late, which is the opposite of how most centres develop.

The Physical Game

He is 5-11 and 207 and holds the puck against pressure below the goal line.

36 penalty minutes in 82 games at twenty-one a night is a low rate. He takes the draw, kills penalties, and has 5 career shorthanded goals.

The Intangibles

Thirteenth overall in 2017 by Vegas, out of London, Ontario, five seasons and 373 games, and the captaincy of the Montreal Canadiens at 23.

He is 25 and carries a career minus-76 that describes five seasons of bad clubs rather than the player. Seventy-seven points on this roster is the whole argument that the rebuild has a centre.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:26 a game at five-on-five, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is 5-11 and 207 and holds the puck against pressure below the goal line.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He takes the draw, kills penalties, and has 5 career shorthanded goals.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He takes the draw, kills penalties, and has 5 career shorthanded goals.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is a passer first and the shot has arrived late, which is the opposite of how most centres develop.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Thirteenth overall in 2017 by Vegas, out of London, Ontario, five seasons and 373 games, and the captaincy of the Montreal Canadiens at 23.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,265 minutes

Expected goals
49.9%
52nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.4%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 51 against. Expected: 56.4 and 56.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
52nd

The report ranks him 32 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
89th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.66 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.9 mph
75th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1265 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
MTL took 46.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.9% — 3.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,265 minutes at five-on-five — 88th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cole Caufield50.5%47.3%42.2%
Juraj Slafkovsky49.9%49.9%46.1%
Mike Matheson47.8%52.1%41.8%

50.5% together, 47.3% for him apart and 42.2% for Caufield apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

275 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 37 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.