Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

10

Jordan Spence

Ottawa Senators Defense

Twenty-four assists and a plus-23 in Los Angeles from a 5-11 defenceman, traded to Ottawa in the summer.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22LAK2426802001414.919:45
2022-23LAK6011+1000060.014:00
2023-24LAK7122224+512100802.514:26
2024-25LAK7942428+2316000864.716:47
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—18085361+29301012133.816:10

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 24 assists in 79 games for Los Angeles — 28 points at 16:47 a night, plus-23, on 16 penalty minutes.

The plus-23 was among the best figures on a club that finished second in the league in goals against, so it is a fact about the Kings as much as about him. What it does establish is that he played a full season of third-pairing minutes on a good defensive team without hurting it.

The Finesse Game

86 attempts and 4 goals — the shot is not the point. 24 assists in 79 games from a third pairing is a real number, and it comes from the first pass.

He is quick, he retrieves the puck and moves it before the forecheck arrives, and he skates it out himself when the pass is not there. On a club whose exits are its problem below the top pair, that is the specific reason he was acquired.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 188 and among the smallest defencemen in the league. He does not clear a crease, he does not win a battle against a heavy forward, and he does not pretend otherwise.

16 penalty minutes in 79 games. He defends by getting to the puck first and by being difficult to line up, and when that fails he does not have a second answer.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick in 2019, born in Australia and raised in Prince Edward Island, and 180 NHL games in across four seasons in Los Angeles.

Ottawa acquired him in the summer. He is 24, he has never played more than 17 minutes a night, and the club is betting that the puck-moving is worth the weight it is giving up on the third pair.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    84.8% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 93rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is quick, he retrieves the puck and moves it before the forecheck arrives, and he skates it out himself when the pass is not there.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**24 assists in 79 games from a third pairing is a real number**, and it comes from the first pass.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not clear a crease, he does not win a battle against a heavy forward, and he does not pretend otherwise.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He does not clear a crease, he does not win a battle against a heavy forward, and he does not pretend otherwise.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He defends by getting to the puck first and by being difficult to line up, and when that fails he does not have a second answer.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,132 minutes

Expected goals
56.5%
95th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.4%
94th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 27 against. Expected: 44.7 and 34.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
30th
Numbers
95th

The numbers rank him 65 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 79 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
68th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.30 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.35 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.2 mph
74th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with LAK · 1132 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
LAK took 54.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.5% — 2.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,132 minutes at five-on-five — 79th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jacob Moverare59.1%55.3%51.0%
Kevin Fiala60.2%55.0%56.5%
Alex Laferriere60.3%54.8%54.9%

59.1% together, 55.3% for him apart and 51.0% for Moverare apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

151 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 58 feet. 2% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 85% from beyond forty.