Edmonton Oilers

What the Quant Says

259 goals, and 2nd in the league in creating chances at even strength at 2.95 expected goals per 60. What happened to those chances is the story of this chapter and possibly of this edition.

Edmonton finished 30th in finishing, 19.8 goals below expectation. The five-on-five goals came out 162-165 against an expected 181.8-153.2 — a 31-goal swing against a team that was outplaying almost everybody.

It is not distributed evenly. Connor McDavid's line was outscored 62-57 against an expected 67.0-43.8. Zach Hyman's was 61-48 against an expected 64.7-40.6. Leon Draisaitl's was 66-46 against an expected 69.2-47.1. Those are 35, 34 and 27 goals respectively, on three of the four best chance shares in the league. Draisaitl still scored 52 on a 21.7 per cent rate; McDavid still had 100 points in 67 games.

What the Scout Says

Two of the best forwards alive, a net-front specialist who does nothing else, and a bottom six rebuilt every summer.

McDavid sees the play two moves ahead and delivers into space that has not opened yet — 74 assists in 67 games — and he is stronger on the puck than 194 pounds suggests, protecting it at speed with one hand. Draisaitl releases heavy and disguised from a standstill and is very difficult to knock off a possession below the goal line; the one-timer from the left circle is the most dangerous power-play weapon in hockey.

Zach Hyman's whole game is arriving at the front of the net before the defenceman and being ready. There is not much handling and there does not need to be, and at 33 a game built entirely on going to the paint has a fixed lifespan. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been asked to be four different players in fourteen seasons and been competent at all of them, and does not drive a line by himself.

Vasily Podkolzin forechecks with genuine heaviness and posted a 98th-percentile chance share in thirteen minutes a night — if the finishing ever arrives he becomes valuable. Jack Roslovic scored 22 goals in thirteen minutes inside Carolina's structure. Andrew Mangiapane is 5-10 and forechecks hard and has not been a 35-goal scorer in four years. Trent Frederic is 6-3 and 221 and was bought for a hard series.

What the Quant Says

236 goals against and 15th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.44 per 60, with the 4th-best shot-attempt share in the league.

Mattias Ekholm posted 59.1 per cent at 34 — the 99th percentile — and missed 17 games, during which the club's defensive shape visibly changed. Evan Bouchard was 58.5 per cent with 67 points and 235 shots, and his on-ice goals were 66-63 against an expected 79.2-56.6: 32 goals that should have been scored and were not. Brett Kulak, on a third pair, was at 54.5. Darnell Nurse was 53.4 — the 81st percentile — which is a better season than the contract's reputation allows for.

The exception is the summer's most expensive addition: Jake Walman at 47.8 per cent, the 30th percentile, six points below any other Edmonton defenceman. On a blue line where everybody else is above the 80th, that is not a context problem.

What the Scout Says

An elite offensive defenceman, an elite structural one, and a third pair that is better than it should be.

Evan Bouchard's shot is the best from the point in the league — heavy, quick from a set position, 235 attempts — and the stretch pass is the more valuable skill: it turns a defensive-zone retrieval into a rush, which is the single most distinctive thing this club does. At 6-3 and 192 he does not clear a crease, does not win a battle below the goal line, and his defensive lapses are memorable in a way a 98th-percentile chance share is not.

Mattias Ekholm beats a forecheck by himself and chooses the right option under pressure with almost no error rate, and at 6-5 he clears his crease and defends the rush with reach. He is 34 and has cleared 75 games once in four years, and there is no succession plan.

Darnell Nurse covers ground exceptionally for 6-4 and closes gaps with pace rather than reach, and the first pass is where the errors live — attempted late and under pressure. Brett Kulak escapes cleanly, moves the puck early, and takes 18 penalty minutes a season playing 20 minutes a night. Jake Walman carries out under control and attempts the difficult play at the wrong moment. Ty Emberson takes 84 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet and does not lose games.

What the Quant Says

Stuart Skinner stopped .8958 across 51 games and Calvin Pickard .8999 in 36. The club's goaltending came in 11.8 goals worse than the chances faced, 24th in the league.

Put that beside the finishing — 30th — and the arithmetic of the season is complete: a club that was 2nd in creating chances, 14th at preventing them and 1st on the penalty kill lost roughly 31 goals at five-on-five to the two phases it controls least, and lost a second consecutive final.

Connor Ingram arrives from Utah having stopped .8817 in a season he stepped away from in March for the player assistance programme, a year after posting 6 shutouts. That is insurance rather than an answer. This position is the difference between this club and the one that has beaten it twice.

What the Scout Says

The one position on this roster that is not good enough, and the club has known it for two years.

Stuart Skinner is 6-4 and plays large and positional — deep, square, taking away the top of the net and relying on the chance being ordinary. The lateral quickness is the specific weakness: a puck moved across the slot beats him more often than it should, and ordinary rebound control turns a save into a second chance. Against a team that moves the puck east-west in the offensive zone he is considerably more beatable than the frame suggests, which is precisely the description of the club that has beaten Edmonton twice. He has been pulled repeatedly and benched in two postseasons and returned each time without visible damage, and there is no six-week stretch in his record where a club could stop worrying.

Calvin Pickard is 6-1 and compact and reactive, challenges hard, and does not cover a net by occupying it — he is at his best in a run of games and noticeably worse cold. Thirteen professional seasons and seven organisations have made him unflappable. Connor Ingram is athletic and aggressive and relies on getting to the puck, with ordinary rebound control and lateral recovery, and stepped away in March for the player assistance programme.

What the Quant Says

10th at 7.48 expected goals per 60, over 4:23 a night. Good, and a long way below what it has been.

Draisaitl scored 16 power-play goals, McDavid 9, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7, Zach Hyman 6. The unit is the most talented in the league on paper — Draisaitl's one-timer from the left circle, McDavid below the goal line, Bouchard's release from the point, Hyman in the paint — and 10th is a middling return from it.

Some of that is the same finishing problem as everywhere else on this page. Some of it is that opponents have four years of tape on an arrangement that has not changed.

What the Scout Says

The most talented five in the league and a 10th-place finish.

Leon Draisaitl's one-timer from the left circle is the most dangerous single weapon on any power play in hockey, and 16 goals is what it produces. Connor McDavid works from below the goal line and behind the net, where his ability to change direction at speed cannot be defended by a stationary box. Evan Bouchard's release from the point has to be respected the moment the puck reaches him. Zach Hyman stands in the paint and takes the punishment.

That is four of the five best things a power play can have. The reason it finished 10th rather than 1st is partly the same finishing problem that runs through this whole chapter, and partly that the arrangement has not changed in four years and every penalty killer in the league has the tape. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the second unit is a genuine distributor and gets a fraction of the time.

What the Quant Says

1st in the league at 6.17 expected goals against per 60, over 4:23 a game. The best unit in hockey, and the phase of this team that is unambiguously excellent.

Ekholm and Nurse take the defensive minutes, and Mattias Janmark and Nugent-Hopkins do the forward work — Janmark's speed and reading are the whole of his value and none of it appears in a box score. Curtis Lazar was signed to add another. Nugent-Hopkins scored 2 shorthanded.

The discipline is the one soft spot: Nurse took 72 penalty minutes, Vasily Podkolzin 48, Trent Frederic 44 in 58 games. A unit this good can absorb it; a unit this good should not have to.

What the Scout Says

The best in the league, and it is built on speed and reading rather than on blocking shots.

Mattias Janmark is the clearest example: 68 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet and he scored 2 goals all season, and none of his value is in the box score. He forechecks a breakout at speed, takes away the first option, and is trusted in every situation. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins does the same job with more skill and scored 2 shorthanded.

Mattias Ekholm's reach ends plays at the blue line rather than in the slot, and Darnell Nurse clears the crease and will fight anybody. Curtis Lazar was signed to add a fourth forward who can do it. The one soft spot is discipline — Nurse's 72 penalty minutes, Podkolzin's 48 — and a unit that kills at the best rate in hockey should not be asked to work as often as this roster asks it to.