Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

25

Darnell Nurse

Edmonton Oilers Defense

33 points, 72 penalty minutes, and a 53.4 per cent chance share on the most criticised contract in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15EDM2000-2000020.017:00
2015-16EDM693710-13600001202.520:14
2016-17EDM445611033000855.917:01
2017-18EDM8262026+15670021943.122:15
2018-19EDM82103141-5871011965.123:49
2019-20EDM7152833-2480011702.923:27
2020-21EDM56162036+275710215410.425:38
2021-22EDM7192635+18540202034.425:03
2022-23EDM82123143+26640242035.923:30
2023-24EDM81102232+3791121815.521:54
2024-25EDM7652833+11720111882.722:22
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—71681219300+78621361316964.822:41

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 28 assists in 76 games for 33 points, plus-11, on 22:22 a night and 188 shots.

53.6 per cent at five-on-five, the 82nd percentile — which on this club is the fourth-best figure among defencemen and in the league is a good one. His on-ice goals were 61-52 against an expected 62-53, so the results roughly matched the play.

The Finesse Game

The skating is genuinely excellent for a 6-4 defenceman — he covers ground, he can carry the puck out, and he closes gaps with pace rather than with reach.

188 shots and 5 goals is a poor return and the release has never threatened anybody. 28 assists at 22 minutes a night is modest, and the first pass is where the errors live: he attempts it late and under pressure more often than he should.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 215, and he plays a genuinely hard game. He hits, he clears his crease, and he will fight anybody in the league.

72 penalty minutes over 76 games is the highest total on the club and a real cost even on a unit that killed at the best rate in hockey.

The Intangibles

Eleven seasons in one organisation, a captaincy in all but name, and a contract that has been criticised more thoroughly than any other in the league.

The honest reading is more forgiving than the reputation: an 81st-percentile chance share in 22 minutes a night on a Cup finalist is a good season. He is being paid as a number-one defenceman and he is a good number-two, which is an overpayment rather than a disaster.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    18:18 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “he covers ground, he can carry the puck out, and he closes gaps with pace rather than with reach.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “6-4 and 215, and he plays a genuinely hard game.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He hits, he clears his crease, and he will fight anybody in the league.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “he will fight anybody in the league”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Eleven seasons in one organisation, a captaincy in all but name”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,391 minutes

Expected goals
53.6%
82nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 61 for, 52 against. Expected: 61.5 and 53.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
60th
Numbers
82nd

The numbers rank him 22 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 76 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
63rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
1.24 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.16 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.2 mph
92nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1391 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
EDM took 54.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.6% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,391 minutes at five-on-five — 95th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Leon Draisaitl59.1%50.5%59.8%
Troy Stecher51.2%54.8%45.1%
Vasily Podkolzin57.6%52.0%57.3%

59.1% together, 50.5% for him apart and 59.8% for Draisaitl apart. He was worse away from Draisaitl, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Draisaitl did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

248 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 33 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.