This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Connor McDavid

100 points in 67 games and a 59.8 per cent chance share, and his line came out 62-57 against an expected 67-44.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2015-16	EDM	45	16	32	48	-1	18	3	0	5	105	15.2	18:53
2016-17	EDM	82	30	70	100	+27	26	3	1	6	251	11.9	21:08
2017-18	EDM	82	41	67	108	+20	26	5	1	7	274	15.0	21:33
2018-19	EDM	78	41	75	116	+3	20	9	1	9	240	17.1	22:50
2019-20	EDM	64	34	63	97	-6	28	11	0	6	212	16.0	21:52
2020-21	EDM	56	33	72	105	+21	20	9	0	11	200	16.5	22:09
2021-22	EDM	80	44	79	123	+28	45	10	0	9	314	14.0	22:04
2022-23	EDM	82	64	89	153	+22	36	21	4	11	352	18.2	22:23
2023-24	EDM	76	32	100	132	+35	30	7	1	5	263	12.2	21:22
2024-25	EDM	67	26	74	100	+20	37	9	0	3	196	13.3	22:02
2025-26 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	712	361	721	1082	+169	286	87	8	72	2407	15.0	21:44

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

26 goals and 74 assists in 67 games for 100 points, plus-20, on 22:02 a night — a point-per-game rate above 1.49 in a season interrupted by injury.

60.5 per cent at five-on-five, the 99th percentile. And his on-ice goals were 62-57 against an expected 67.0-43.8. That is five goals that should have been scored while he was on the ice and were not, and thirteen more against than expected. It is the single most extreme gap in this edition and there is no version of it that is his fault.

The Finesse Game

The best skater the league has seen. It is not straight-line speed alone — it is the ability to change direction at full pace without losing any of it, which means a defenceman who commits is beaten and a defenceman who does not is walked around.

50 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet at a median of 20, which for the most heavily defended player in hockey is remarkable: he gets to the middle of the ice against a game plan designed to keep him out of it. 74 assists in 67 games is the more distinctive half; he sees the play two moves ahead and delivers a puck into space that has not opened yet.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 194, and he is stronger on the puck than the frame suggests — he protects it at speed with one hand and absorbs contact without losing the lane.

37 penalty minutes over 67 games. The body has now cost him time in three of the last five seasons, which at 28 is worth noting on a club with no second option.

The Intangibles

Ten seasons, five Art Ross trophies, two Cup finals, and no Cup. He has been the best player in the world for most of a decade on a club that has spent that decade constructing a supporting cast.

The useful thing this edition can say is that last season was not a decline in any respect. A 99th-percentile chance share with an on-ice differential of minus-13 does not repeat; the underlying play says 120 points is available the moment the pucks start going in.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
60.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 51.2% for his club in the minutes he sat: +9.3, 99th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
workhorse· carries the load at even strength
16:46 a game at five-on-five, 99th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
sheltered· is started in the attacking end
66% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 97th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control
“which means a defenceman who commits is beaten and a defenceman who does not is walked around.”
playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“he sees the play two moves ahead and delivers a puck into space that has not opened yet.”
hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand
“he is stronger on the puck than the frame suggests — he protects it at speed with one hand and absorbs contact without losing the lane.”
edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone
“it is the ability to change direction at full pace without losing any of it, which means a defenceman who commits is beaten and a defenceman who does not is walked around”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,123 minutes

Expected goals: 60.5%; 99th pct
Shot attempts: 60.1%; 99th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 62 for, 57 against. Expected: 67.0 and 43.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

100th

Numbers

99th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 91 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 67 games

Top speed: 24.0 mph; 99th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 6.60 a game
Distance: 3.82 miles a game
Hardest shot: 88.0 mph; 66th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1123 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club: EDM took 54.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 60.5% — 6.2 above the club he did it on.
The role: First line, 1,123 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Evan Bouchard	61.8%	57.1%	53.4%
Zach Hyman	63.3%	54.7%	56.9%
Mattias Ekholm	61.1%	59.5%	57.3%

61.8% together, 57.1% for him apart and 53.4% for Bouchard apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

278 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 26 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.