Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

97

Connor McDavid

Edmonton Oilers Center

100 points in 67 games and a 59.8 per cent chance share, and his line was outscored 28-41 against an expected 63-42.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16EDM45163248-11830510515.218:53
2016-17EDM823070100+272631625111.921:08
2017-18EDM824167108+202651727415.021:33
2018-19EDM784175116+32091924017.122:50
2019-20EDM64346397-628110621216.021:52
2020-21EDM563372105+2120901120016.522:09
2021-22EDM804479123+2845100931414.022:04
2022-23EDM826489153+22362141135218.222:23
2023-24EDM7632100132+353071526312.221:22
2024-25EDM672674100+203790319613.322:02
2025-26 so far
Career7123617211082+16928687872240715.021:44

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

26 goals and 74 assists in 67 games for 100 points, plus-20, on 22:02 a night — a point-per-game rate above 1.49 in a season interrupted by injury.

59.8 per cent at five-on-five, the 99th percentile. And his on-ice goals were 28-41 against an expected 63.0-42.3. That is 35 goals that should have been scored while he was on the ice and were not, and 1 more against than expected. It is the single most extreme gap in this edition and there is no version of it that is his fault.

The Finesse Game

The best skater the league has seen. It is not straight-line speed alone — it is the ability to change direction at full pace without losing any of it, which means a defenceman who commits is beaten and a defenceman who does not is walked around.

50 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet at a median of 20, which for the most heavily defended player in hockey is remarkable: he gets to the middle of the ice against a game plan designed to keep him out of it. 74 assists in 67 games is the more distinctive half; he sees the play two moves ahead and delivers a puck into space that has not opened yet.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 194, and he is stronger on the puck than the frame suggests — he protects it at speed with one hand and absorbs contact without losing the lane.

37 penalty minutes over 67 games. The body has now cost him time in three of the last five seasons, which at 28 is worth noting on a club with no second option.

The Intangibles

Ten seasons, five Art Ross trophies, two Cup finals, and no Cup. He has been the best player in the world for most of a decade on a club that has spent that decade constructing a supporting cast.

The useful thing this edition can say is that last season was not a decline in any respect. A 99th-percentile chance share with an on-ice differential of minus-13 does not repeat; the underlying play says 120 points is available the moment the pucks start going in.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,123 minutes

Expected goals
59.8%
99th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
59.9%
99th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 41 against. Expected: 63.0 and 42.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
100th
Numbers
99th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 91 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1123 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
EDM took 54.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.8% — 5.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,123 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Evan Bouchard61.1%56.6%54.8%
Zach Hyman62.0%55.4%56.4%
Mattias Ekholm59.8%59.9%58.0%

61.1% together, 56.6% for him apart and 54.8% for Bouchard apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

278 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 26 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.